Mumbles Head (Swansea) weather

Headline:

Brightening up for a time, more rain later.

Today:

A damp start with hill fog and patchy rain and drizzle. Brightening up from the south with occasional sunny intervals. Further rain pushing northwards later. Feeling much milder, especially in any sunshine, but freshening easterly winds again later. Maximum temperature 9 °C.

Tonight:

Bands of rain spreading north across Wales this evening merging into longer spells of rain overnight. Occasional clear spells in northern and western areas. Windy at times. Remaining largely frost-free. Minimum temperature 3 °C.

Saturday:

Cloudy for many with spells of rain through the morning, though tending to become drier with just a few showers by the afternoon. Brightest in the west. Winds gradually easing. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Drier on Sunday with low cloud and fog lingering for some, although most seeing the sunshine break through. Increasingly unsettled early next week with wet and windy weather at times.

Frontal systems over the North Atlantic, steered by a south-shifted jet stream, are likely to approach the UK at times, but tending to stall as they encounter a blocking area of high pressure to the north and northeast. This will result in further spells of rain at times, falling in areas already sensitive to flooding. As these bands of rain spread northwards, some snow will be possible on high ground in northern England and Scotland as they encounter colder air. A subtle shift southwards of these areas of low pressure is anticipated during the second week of February, which may allow a greater chance of colder air to spread across northern UK at least, bringing an increased risk of wintry hazards for a time.

Something of a north-south split seems quite likely at first, with low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north, before a potential change back to more of a southwest-northeast split. With the jet stream likely further south than normal, the wettest conditions are more likely towards the south. Northwestern parts of the UK are most likely to be drier than normal. Whilst incursions of wet, windy and milder weather are favoured at times in the south and later the west, colder conditions further north will bring an increased risk of wintry hazards, especially where any precipitation from the southwest interacts with the cold air. The colder conditions may affect all parts at times, more especially early in this period.