Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Tuesday night into Wednesday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora at high geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Strong flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with the strongest flare from the large region in the northwest. There are seven visible regions on the Earth-facing disc, with this being the only region of note. This is a magnetically complex region and while this is becoming harder to assess due to its location, maintains a strong delta-spot to the northwest of its trailer spot.
There are no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, showed no significant features. The solar wind speed started the period at Slightly Elevated levels, peaking at 470km/s, before a gradual decline to background levels, around 350km/s, before the recent gradual rise back to Slightly Elevated levels, just above 400km/s. The magnetic field was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component was variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is forecast, with further isolated Moderate-class flares from the large northwestern region. There remains a chance of activity becoming High with an isolated Strong (X-class) flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Solar winds are currently at background levels, which were expected to increase to Slightly Elevated levels during the 09 Feb, with the anticipated arrival of fast winds from a small coronal hole, which are yet to materialise. However, this feature is rather small compared to previous rotation, even then, it did not give much of a geomagnetic response. If any enhancement occurs on day 1 (10 Feb) solar winds may reach 500-550km/s, although this is low confidence. Otherwise, no other enhancements are expected during the forecast period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background, but with a chance of rising above as a result of any notable flares from the large and complex sunspot region on the northwest disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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