Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes over the next few days, with only a slight chance of aurora sightings over high latitudes. Coronal hole fast winds may cause an enhancement to the auroral oval on Monday 23 Feb, with sightings possible across northern Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes over the next few days, with only a slight chance of aurora sightings over high latitudes. Coronal hole fast winds may cause an enhancement to the auroral oval on Monday 23 Feb, with sightings possible across the far south of New Zealand.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms Day 4 (23 Feb).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low, with isolated Common-class flares observed. There are four sunspots on the visible disc, however these are all relatively small, simple and in decline.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed continued influence from coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated to elevated. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak. The north-south component varied weakly, becoming largely positive. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is forecast through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak coronal mass ejection from early on 18 Feb has a slight chance of a weak glance either late on 20 Feb or early 21 Feb. Solar winds are currently slightly elevated and are expected to persist initially, gradually easing back to background by day 3 (22 Feb). On day 4 (23 Feb) solar winds may once again become elevated upon the onset of the next coronal hole fast winds.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active intervals for much of the period. The connection to the negative polarity coronal hole fast winds on day 4 (23 Feb) will bring a likelihood of Active intervals, with a chance of G1 Minor Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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