Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora may see some weak enhancements through the period, due to a mixture of glancing coronal mass ejection influence, and the potential for a spell of fast solar winds. However, this is low confidence, and any potential visibility is likely to be limited to the high geomagnetic latitudes, limiting any UK-based viewing to northern Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora may see some weak enhancements through the period, due to a mixture of glancing corona mass ejection influence, and the potential for a spell of fast solar winds. However, this is low confidence. Any potential visibility will also be limited to the higher geomagnetic latitudes, which have much reduced hours of darkness at this time of year, limiting any viewing.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor storms, mainly day 1-2 (12-13 Dec
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with occasional C-class flaring, peaking C9.7 at 1546 UTC from one of the two large regions near the southwest limb. These have remained relatively inactive as they moved across the southern disc. However, despite an ongoing declining trend, which is likely partly due to the increasing viewing angle, these continue to give a chance of notable flares as they move towards the southwestern solar horizon. There are seven regions on the visible disc, however, aside from these two, they are all relatively small and simple groups. The only notable growth was in a small region in the southeast, which emerged in the last 24-36 hours.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing CME influence continued through this period, after the arrival on 10 Dec. Solar wind speeds were mostly Slightly Elevated at around 400-450km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Strong at first, peaking 11/0711 UTC before gradually declining to become Moderate from 11/1900 UTC. The north-south component, Bz, was Strongly southward at first, before rotating to become mainly positive (northward)11/0200-1930 UTC, and also peaking Strong, but with brief southward spells. This component then continuing rotating, becoming Moderately south again by the end of the period. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), but with one G2 Moderate Storm interval 11/0000-0300 UTC and a G1 Minor Storm interval 11/0300-0600 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected at first, with isolated Moderate class flares likely and an ongoing slight chance of isolated X-class flares. Activity then easing as from later day 2 (13 Dec) as the large regions in the southwest move over the limb and onto the far-side.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing but weakening CME effects continue, with further weak enhancements possible on day 1 (12 Dec). This is likely to be followed by a connection to the fast wind from a coronal hole, most likely on day 2 (13 Dec) with a solar winds likely increasing to be Elevated to Strong (500-600km/s). Quiet to Active geomagnetic activity is likely at first, but rising to be Active to G1 Minor Storm if any further CME influence is observed, along with the onset of the fast winds. Activity easing through days 3-4 (14-15 Dec), becoming mainly Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, but with a chance of further enhancement given any further notable flares, most likely from the larger region in the southwest.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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