Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Continued enhancement to the aurora is likely into the 16 September due to ongoing fast solar winds. This could bring some potential for visible aurora to northern parts of the UK and similar geomagnetic latitudes, but the extent and timing of any aurora is low confidence. Activity is expected to generally decline in the coming days.
Southern Hemisphere
Continued enhancement to the aurora is likely into the 16 September UTC due to ongoing fast solar winds. This could bring some potential for visible aurora to southernmost parts of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, but the extent and timing of any aurora is low confidence. Activity is expected to generally decline in the coming days.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance Minor Geomagnetic Storm initially Day 1 (16 Sep). Chance of Moderate class flares (Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) throughout
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity has been Low. The most notable activity a peak C3.5 flare detected at 15/1831 UTC from an unknown source near the southwest limb.
Six sunspot regions are currently visible on the Earth-facing solar disc. The largest in the northeast, has changed little with limited magnetic complexity visible.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were noted during the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed connection to fast solar winds and have been generally at strong levels above 600 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, IMF, initially at strong levels then eased to Moderate around 15/0300 UTC, and then Weak levels around 15/2000 UTC. The all-important north-south component, was at mostly weak to moderate levels after initial strong levels eased.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was for initially Strong geomagnetic storm interval recorded 15/0000-0300UTC, then Active to Minor geomagnetic storm levels following, before ending the period at Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Generally Low activity is expected to continue, although there remains a chance of an isolated Moderate solar flare, which is most likely from the second largest sunspot group in the southeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast. A fast wind from a large coronal hole to the west of the disc will affect Earth throughout the forecast, likely slowly declining through the period.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active, with an initial chance of a further Minor storm interval initially on Day 1 (16 Sep). Conditions are then expected to return to mostly Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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