Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a chance of minor enhancement to the auroral oval into midweek UTC, with enhanced auroral displays potentially becoming visible at high geomagnetic latitudes, which would equate to northern Scotland in the UK. This enhancement is expected to be short-lived, with quiet conditions otherwise expected.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a chance of minor enhancement to the auroral oval into midweek UTC, however given the limited hours of darkness and high geomagnetic latitudes of any display, views are expected to be limited.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Peak slight chance of Minor geomagnetic storm G1 into midweek (UTC).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity was low in the last 24 hours, with occasional small-scale Common-class flares observed, the largest observed at 14/0742UTC from a complex sunspot region just beyond the southwestern solar horizon.
There are currently up to six regions on the facing side of the Sun, with a newly-emerging spot group developing in the period. A group to its immediate south was the largest, most complex and most-changed group on the visible side of the Sun in the period, showing growth throughout, with a spreading tendency and proliferation of intermediate and trailing spots. The remainder of front-sided spot groups were less noteworthy.
A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) associated with the aforementioned peak flare was assessed and passes ahead of the Sun-Earth line to no effect at Earth. No other CMEs were in evidence.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind suggested waning fast wind influence. The solar wind speed fell from strong early highs to fluctuate about elevated levels by the period's end. The number of particles in the solar wind was level within normal background, and the magnetic field was steady at background throughout, with a subdued, small-scale north-south component.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was mostly quiet geomagnetic activity.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a daily slight chance isolated Moderate-class activity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast. A continued exit from a fast wind is expected to complete soon into the new UTC working week, but mainly quiet geomagnetic activity is now expected given its faded stature. A peak slight chance of Minor geomagnetic storm G1 is then expected, perhaps late day two (Tuesday 16 December) or on day three (Wednesday 17 December) from a second source of coronal hole fast wind, with this too easing on day four, Thursday 18 December.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The risk of S-scale events is maintained roughly level at a daily Slight Chance due to a falling contribution from now far-sided complex region, playing off against a rising contribution from a front-sided developing group.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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