Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival is expected on Sunday, bringing an enhancement to the aurora, and increased visibility across higher latitudes. Visible aurora potentially extends into northern parts of the UK, mainly Scotland. However visibility is likely to be limited by the full moon.
Southern Hemisphere
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival is expected on Sunday, bringing an enhancement to the aurora, and increased visibility across higher latitudes. Visible aurora potentially extends into southern parts of the New Zealand and Tasmania. However, a mixture of the current full moon and short hours of darkness, may limit any potential viewings.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: A weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) influence on Day 1 (05 Jan), with a Slight Chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storm interval. Mostly Quiet conditions from Day 2 (06 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only Common-class flares observed. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest region is located in the southwest, with a simple magnetic structure. The region in the northwest has decayed and lost its magnetic complexity. Another region in the south-centre disc has continued to elongate with new intermediate spots emerging. A new region in the southeast is becoming visible over the limb. There has been a lot of looping in this area on the coronagraph imagery so there may be more complexity to this region when it moves into a better viewing position.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) left the Sun during this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were mostly Slightly Elevated between 400-450km/s, briefly declining to background, reaching 370km/s. Solar winds steadily increased to back up to Slightly Elevated or Elevated levels, between 450-500km/s late on 04 Jan, due to the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at 04/2040 UTC, which likely left the Sun on 01 Jan. The Magnetic Field was mostly Weak, before increasing to Moderate, with the arrival of the CME. The north-south component was Weak and mostly positive (northward) initially. Following the arrival of the aforementioned CME, the all-important north-south component, Bz, became moderately negative (southward) from 04/2030 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection (CME) which left the Sun on 01 Jan arrived late on 04 Jan. The effects of the CME will gradually begin to wane on Day 1 (05 Jan). Solar winds are likely to be Slightly Elevated at first, gradually declining to background conditions from Day 2 (06 Jan). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled, with a Chance of Active intervals and a Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storm, due to CME influence early on Day 1 (05 Jan). Activity easing to mostly Quiet conditions from Day 2 (06 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to continue at Background with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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