Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to return to background until later on 21 Dec and into 22 Dec, when the next fast stream of solar wind may arrive. This brings an increased chance of G1/Minor Storm periods, with a chance of aurora sightings extending to the far north of Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to return to background until later on 21 Dec and into 22 Dec, when the next fast stream of solar wind may arrive. This brings an increased chance of G1/Minor Storm periods, with a chance of aurora sightings extending to the far south of New Zealand.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Increasing Chance G1 days 3-4 (21-22 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Low with occasional low-level Common class flares.
There are currently up to six active regions on the visible disc. The largest bipolar group has now rotated to the west limb with remaining spot groups small and magnetically simple, and only slight changes observed in recent imagery.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind measurements showed a connection to coronal hole fast winds. Solar winds peaked at Strong levels, around in the early UTC hours of 18 Dec with a downward, occasionally erratic, trend through the remainder of the UTC day. The interplanetary magnetic field has been Weak., with the north-south component weakly variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) with an initial isolated G1/Minor storm interval 18/0001-0300UTC, as measured by BGS.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be generally Low, with a Slight Chance of isolated Moderate class activity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections in the forecast. Earth is currently under the waning influence of coronal hole fast winds, with speeds peaking earlier at Strong levels. Solar wind speeds should gradually decrease through days 1-2 (19-20 Dec), to become slightly elevated or slow-ambient by day 2 (20 Dec). A connection to another coronal hole fast wind is possible later on day 3 (21 Dec), although this is perhaps more likely to arrive into day 4 (22 Dec).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) at first. An increasing chance of Active (Kp 4) intervals follows later day 3 (21 Dec) with slight chance of G1/Minor storm conditions, then an increased chance of reaching G1/Minor storm levels into day 4 (22 Dec).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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