Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is now easing with auroral viewings likely confined to the far north of Scotland (and similar geomagnetic latitudes) overnight Monday into Tuesday. An uptick in activity due to a glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 22 March may then occur overnight 24 into 25 March UTC, however this is low confidence, and the chances of displays otherwise reduce.
Southern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is now easing with auroral viewings likely confined to the far south of New Zealand (and similar geomagnetic latitudes). An uptick in activity due to a glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 22 March may then occur overnight 24 into 25 March UTC, however this is low confidence, and the chances of displays otherwise reduce.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Geomagnetic activity resurgence possible day 2 (25 March), otherwise slow decline expected.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity has been Low, with the largest event being a low-end common-class X-ray flare from a sunspot region on the southwest of the Sun at 23/0012UTC.
There are currently up to seven sunspot regions on the Earth-facing side of the Sun, these regions are either stable or showing weak signs of growth.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) left the Sun around 22/1530UTC. It has been assessed as carrying an Earth-bound component with a glancing blow possible early on day 2 (25 March) though confidence is low. A further CME from the peak flare on the 23rd is likely directed ahead of the Earth in the track of its orbit, to likely no effect.
No other Earth-directed CMEs were visible in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as observed by ACE at L1, were Strong, due to a coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds ended the period below 650km/s suggesting an overall easing is underway. The solar wind density was below average below 5ppcc. The IMF remained at Background with values near 5nT. The north-south component of the field, Bz, was weak though remained negative for long periods.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was mainly Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp3-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There is a daily Chance of Moderate-class X-ray flares, now revised slightly upwards through the period given a slight increase in some front-sided sunspot regions' complexity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are two main components to the geomagnetic forecast - the current fast wind and then a possible glance from a CME.
The current fast wind is now showing signs of declining. There is perhaps still a Chance of G1, should the Bz component fall negative or a substorm develop. This risk should continue to reduce.
The other component of the forecast is the 22/1530UTC southeast filament eruption CME, which may deliver a glancing blow of Earth early on day 2 (25 March). This may lead to resurgent geomagnetic activity, with G1 Likely and perhaps a Chance of G2, the latter mainly if the CME arrives on the fast end of estimates. From day 3 (26 March) Earth should see a resumption of mainly Quiet geomagnetic activity this extends into day 4 (27 March).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the relative lack of potent regions and subdued flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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