Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain at or near background levels until a coronal hole fast wind arrives either late 17 April or 18 April UTC. This brings an increased chance of enhanced auroral activity this weekend, with viewing possible across Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain at or near background levels until a coronal hole fast wind arrives either late 17 April or 18 April UTC. This brings an increased chance of enhanced auroral activity this weekend, with viewing possible from the south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor storms becoming likely Days 2-3 (17-18 Apr), with a chance of G2/Moderate storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Very Low. There are now three sunspot regions on the visible disc. The two in the north have grown a little in the last 24 hours, although both remain straightforward magnetically. One in the northwest has seen an increase in intermediate spots. The other in the northeast has seen penumbral growth within the trailing and intermediate regions. The third region in the southwest is small and simple, but has a very weak trailing spot.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) which left the Sun on 15 Apr is most likely to miss below Earth's orbit, but there is a small risk of a glancing blow Day 3 into Day 4 (18-19 Apr).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed background conditions. Wind speed was slow, between 330-380 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to continue at Very Low or Low levels, with a slight chance of isolated Moderate flares, mainly from the larger region in the northeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 15 Apr is most likely to miss below Earth's orbit, but there is a small risk of a glancing blow Day 3 into Day 4 (18-19 Apr). Solar winds are expected to be at background to slightly elevated levels at first. The next enhancement will be a large coronal hole, likely bringing wind speeds around 600-700km/s either late Day 2 or early Day 3 (17-18 Apr).
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet to Unsettled at first. From late Day 2 into Day 3 activity is expected to increase, with G1/Minor Storms becoming likely, a chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals and a very slight chance of isolated G3/Strong Storm intervals occurring. Activity then declining into Day 4 in the absence of any CME influence.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at background levels with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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