Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The return of solar fast winds is anticipated through 28 Jan. This could bring a chance of visible aurora to northern parts of Scotland where skies are clear. Similar conditions may persist Wednesday night and perhaps also Thursday night, before activity returns to background conditions thereafter.
Southern Hemisphere
The return of solar fast winds is anticipated through 28 Jan. This could bring a chance of visible aurora to far south of Tasmania, New Zealand and similar latitudes were skies are clear. Similar conditions may persist Wednesday UTC night and perhaps also Thursday UTC night, before activity returns to background conditions thereafter. Sightings may be limited however by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated M-class flares. Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals Days 1-2 (28-29 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with only Common-class flares observed. There are currently nine sunspot regions on the visible solar disc. Despite the number of sunspots on the disc, magnetic complexity is limited and spot groups are relatively small.
No significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in imagery in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the onset of a coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds were slightly elevated at first, around 420 km/s, but rose through the period and are now elevated to strong, mainly between 550-650 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate. The north-south component was mostly weakly southward directed, but became moderately variable after 28/0900 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) declined near to normal background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to remain at Low levels, but with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast. Solar wind speeds have recently increased to around 550-650 km/s due to the onset of a coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds are expected to remain near this level during Day 1 (28 Jan) into Day 2 (29 Jan). Some uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the coronal hole, meaning the duration of elevated solar wind conditions is uncertain and may extend into Day 3 (30 Jan), before a gradual decline through Day 4 (31 Jan).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Active (Kp2-4) with a chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals Days 1-2 (28-29 Jan) due to the fast winds. Activity is then expected to become Quiet to unsettled through Days 3-4 (30-31 Jan) as the fast wind begins to weaken.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is below the S1/Minor radiation storm level and most likely to remain that way.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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