Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes initially, with only a slight chance of aurora sightings over high latitudes. Coronal hole fast winds may cause an enhancement to the auroral oval on Monday 23 Feb and Tuesday 24 Feb, with sightings possible across northern Scotland and similar latitudes
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes initially, with only a slight chance of aurora sightings over high latitudes. Coronal hole fast winds may cause an enhancement to the auroral oval on Monday 23 Feb and Tuesday 24 Feb, with sightings possible across the south of New Zealand.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1 Minor Storms likely on Days 2 and 3 (23-24 Feb).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Very Low, with no significant flares. The visible solar disk is spotless for the first time since the 8th June 2022.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed continued influence from coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were slightly elevated to elevated. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mainly moderate. The north-south component varied weak to moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is forecast through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are currently elevated and are expected to gradually ease back to slightly elevated by the end of day 1 (22 Feb). On day 2 (23 Feb) solar winds are once again expected to become elevated upon the onset of negative polarity coronal hole fast winds.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active intervals initially. The connection to the negative polarity coronal hole fast winds on days 2 and 3 (23/24 Feb) will bring a likelihood of Active to G1 Minor storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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