Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be near background levels through much of this period. A coronal hole fast wind is likely to arrive on Friday, bringing high latitude aurora, with a chance of visibility in the north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be near background levels through much of this period. A coronal hole fast wind is likely to arrive on Friday UTC, bringing high latitude aurora, with a chance of visibility in the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 3 and 4 (13-14 Mar).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low with Common-class flares observed, the largest peaking at 10/1845 UTC. There are eight sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, with all being generally small and simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds continued to show coronal hole fast wind, with perhaps some weak CME influence through this period. Speeds started and ended the period at slightly elevated levels around 450km/s, but did rise to elevated levels between 500-550km/s overnight. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was mostly weak, but did peak at moderate levels at 10/1834UTC. The north-south component varied weakly, favouring a southerly direction. eomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is likely to continue, but with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds may continue to be Elevated early on Day 1 (11 Mar) due to connection with the fast winds from a coronal hole now in the far west of the disc. Fast winds should continue to erratically wane during Day 1 (11 Mar). Slow or perhaps slightly elevated wind speeds are expected until Days 3 and 4 (13-14 Mar), when the fast wind from the next coronal hole is likely to arrive, although with some uncertainty in timing. Wind speeds of 600-700 km/s are expected. No Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast.
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected through much of the period. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase to Unsettled to Active during Days 3 and 4 (13-14 Mar) under fast wind influence from CH31/-, with a chance of G1/Minor Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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