Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds are likely to bring spells of aurora visibility across northern parts of the UK overnight Sunday into Monday (UTC), and similar geomagnetic latitudes. This activity will ease through Monday and into Tuesday, with any viewing becoming more restricted to highest latitudes, and fading to background by Wednesday.
Southern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds are likely to bring spells of aurora visibility across southern parts of the New Zealand and Tasmania overnight Sunday into Monday (UTC), and similar geomagnetic latitudes. This activity will ease through Monday into Tuesday, with any viewing becoming more restricted to across Antarctica, and fading to background by Wednesday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms day 1 (19 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Very Low with no significant flares. There are two sunspot regions on the visible disc, both magnetically simple and relatively inactive. The largest region is bipolar AR4419, now moving into the western hemisphere. AR4415 in the southwest is a very simple and mature unipolar spot.
No Earth directed CME's have been observed, however a couple of filaments have been observed lifting off the southeast disc. The most recent was early on 18 Apr, which has been analysed and is likely to miss behind Earth's orbit.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The onset of the fast winds of CH42/- was observed with speeds slightly elevated to elevated with a range 450km/s-600km/s. Density was below average. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), was Weak to Moderate, between 6-14nT. The north-south component, fluctuated between positive and negative with a range -7/+12nT . Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active, with G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) interval observed 19/0600-0900 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity expected, with only a slight chance of isolated Moderate class flares, most likely from the region in the north-centre disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME arrivals are currently not expected. Otherwise fast winds of CH42 are expected to continue, likely peaking Strong at around 600 km/s on day 1 (19 Apr) before showing a gradual decline later in the period. Active to G1 Minor Storms, with G2 Moderate storm intervals, are expected day 1 (19 Apr). Geomagnetic activity easing to be Quiet to Active by the end of day 2 (20 Apr) and through to day 4 (22 Apr), but still with a chance easing to slight chance of G1 Minor Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms forecast.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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