Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at background conditions at first. However, coronal hole fast winds, perhaps combined with a glancing coronal mass ejection, may bring a minor enhancement on Sunday night into Monday which gives a chance of aurora sightings in northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at background conditions at first. However, coronal hole fast winds, perhaps combined with a glancing coronal mass ejection, may bring a minor enhancement on Sunday and Monday UTC which could give some high latitude auroral visibility where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of isolated Moderate flares. Chance of G1/Minor Storms 15/16 Feb.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate with a low level moderate class flare at 13/0858 UTC. There are now five sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, though they all appear relatively small and magnetically simple.
The coronal mass ejection from 13 Feb has been analysed and is expected to miss above Earths orbit, through there remains a slight chance of a glance either later 15 or on 16 Feb.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed some weak glancing coronal mass ejection influence perhaps combined with a solar sector boundary crossing. Wind speed was mostly slow at first, but became slightly elevated after 13/0845 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate. The north-south component varied weakly and was mostly negative. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain mostly Low, but there is a slight chance of further isolated low level Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast. A coronal mass ejection from 13 Feb is expected to miss above Earths orbit, through there remains a slight chance of a glance either later day 2 or on day 3 (15/16 Feb). The next enhancement is most likely 15 Feb, when coronal hole fasts winds reach Earth, with elevated wind speeds most likely.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active intervals. Fast winds, accompanied by the slight chance of a glance from 13 Feb coronal mass ejection, could bring Active conditions with a chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals on days 2 and 3 (15/16 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is likely to remain at background levels, but with a diminishing slight chance of enhancement, should there be any notable flares from the large and complex sunspot region currently beyond the northwest limb.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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