Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at or near background levels until Thursday (UTC), when the onset of a coronal hole fast wind is likely to give some enhancement to the auroral oval. Aurora is then likely to be visible over Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at or near background levels until Thursday (UTC), when the onset of a coronal hole fast wind is likely to give some enhancement to the auroral oval. Aurora could then be visible from the south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor Storms likely Day 4 (09 Apr). Ongoing chance of Moderate-class flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with only a couple of Common-class flares. There are currently seven sunspot regions visible on the Earth-facing disc. Most remain relatively simple with little change. A region in the northwest has been the largest, most complex and the main focus for recent flare activity. However, it has recently simplified, with associated activity easing off for the time being. The second largest region in the southwest has been fading.
There have been no Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) seen in imagery during the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed declining influence from fast winds and a CME. The wind speed has been mostly elevated between 500-560 km/s, but on a slight and erratic downward trend. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were slightly above normal background levels but well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold, with a declining trend.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to be Low to Very Low, however there remains a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is one CME currently remaining in the forecast. This feature is most likely to have missed Earth, however there remains a very low risk of a glancing blow early on Day 1 (06 Apr). No other Earth directed CMEs feature in the forecast at present. Earth is currently under waning coronal hole fast wind and CME influence, with wind speeds expected to continue to ease during Days 1-2 (06-07 Apr), although the possible CME glance early on Day 1 lowers confidence. Conditions are then likely to be near background levels until later on Day 4 (09 Apr), when further fast winds could arrive, perhaps bringing wind speeds around 600 km/s.
Activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled Days 1-3 (06-08 Apr), although there remains a slight chance of an occasional Active interval on Day 1 with any CME influence. During Day 4, Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm conditions likely to develop, with a slight chance of a G2/Moderate Storm interval, due to the likely onset of coronal hole fast winds.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels. There is a slight chance of reaching the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold, if a significant flare were to occur.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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