Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement on Sunday due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some brief glimpses from the far north of Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement during the southern hemisphere Sunday night due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some glimpses from far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 during day 1 (29 Mar). Chance of M-class flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity was Low with no flares of note. There are ten sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. AR4405 is the most significant region, located in the southeast, a moderately large bipolar region but with more complex mixed magnetic polarity. AR4401 in the north-centre disc, is a moderately large and elongated bipolar region. The other remaining regions are simple and stable or in decline.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind measured at L1 by ACE remained at Background generally between 330-380km/s. The solar wind density was Below Average. The IMF was Weak, before increasing to Moderate late in the period. The north-south component, Bz, was Weak and predominantly negative (southward). Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) but with an Active interval (Kp4) between 29/0300-0600UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to be mostly Low, but with an ongoing Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) feature in the current forecast. The next coronal hole fast wind may arrive during day 1 (29 Mar) to give a Chance of G1/Minor Storms. From day 2 (30 Mar), Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals initially, though a further enhancement is possible later on day 4 (1 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the relative lack of significant regions and activity on the disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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