Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be near background levels through much of this period. A coronal hole fast wind is likely to arrive on Friday, bringing high latitude aurora, with a chance of visibility in the north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be near background levels through much of this period. A coronal hole fast wind is likely to arrive on Friday UTC, bringing high latitude aurora, with a chance of visibility in the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Day 4 (13 Mar).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low with Common-class flares observed, the largest peaking at 09/2038 UTC. There are six sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The moderately sized regions in the northwest are generally stable and magnetically simple. All other regions are small and simple with the majority of the activity from the two regions in the northeast.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a waning connection to coronal hole fast winds. Wind speeds were slightly elevated throughout. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low solar activity is likely to continue, but with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection from 06 Mar is expected to miss Earth, but may give a weak glance on Day 1 (10 Mar). No other Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Waning fast wind conditions may ease a little further. Ambient or perhaps slightly elevated wind speeds are expected until Day 4 (13 Mar), when another fast wind is likely to arrive, although with some uncertainty in timing. Wind speeds likely rising to Strong.
Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected through much of the period, but with a risk of Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals Day 1 if we do see any coronal mass ejection influence. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase to Unsettled to Active during Day 4 under fast wind influence, with a chance of G1/Minor Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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