Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Earth is currently seeing fast solar winds. However, any enhancement to the aurora and its associated visibility is likely to remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes, and only giving a slight chance of limited glimpses into the far north of Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
Earth is currently seeing fast solar winds. However, any enhancement to the aurora and its associated visibility is likely to remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes. Given the reduced hours of darkness at this time of year, any potential viewings will remain unlikely.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Waning Slight Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity has been Low, with only minor Common-class flares observed during the period.
There are seven sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest and most recently active region remains located in the northeast of the solar disc, becoming more compact with some infill of its intermediate region. The region to its immediate southeast saw slight growth and a spreading trend, however this has now stalled and the group appears more open. Other regions on the disc were less notable, with a previously active region in the south-centre disc showing continuing marked decay. A proliferation of spots have formed in the wake of this region to the southeast, currently labelled as a new and separate region.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind has remained strong through the period, with an overall slight reduction observed. The number of particles in the solar wind and their associated magnetic field have both been steady and within background.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was for Unsettled to Active geomagnetic activity (Kp3-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There is a daily chance of isolated Moderate-class flares that may rise slightly later in the period as a result of the return of previously large active regions over the eastern solar horizon.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast. Coronal hole fast winds are expected to continue through much of the period, slowly declining from current Strong levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled to Active at first, with a waning Slight Chance of G1. A gradual decline to more Unsettled to Quiet conditions is then likely as fast winds ease.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation storms are considered unlikely in the period given the eastern solar hemisphere bias of sunspot regions (from here connecting less well with Earth should they flare appropriately).
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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