Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Earth is currently under the influence of Elevated coronal hole fast winds, with a gradual decline expected through the period. There is a chance of some enhancement to the auroral oval through Saturday 11th of April, though likely declining back to background levels thereafter. Aurora may be visible over northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes at times.
Southern Hemisphere
Earth is currently under the influence of Elevated coronal hole fast winds, with a gradual decline expected through the period. There is a chance of some enhancement to the auroral oval through Saturday 11th of April UTC, though likely declining back to background levels thereafter. Aurora may be visible far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Day 1 (11 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Very Low. There are three sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, all of which are small and simple at present.
There have been no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in available imagery during the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind rose gradually and erratically after 10/0300UTC from Slow-Ambient conditions to Elevated. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Moderate. The north-south component, Bz, was largely positive (northward) but mostly weak and briefly Moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were near normal background levels, well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Very Low, with only a slight chance of an isolated Moderate solar flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections currently forecast. Wind speeds are expected to be largely Elevated, perhaps briefly Strong through day 1 (11 Apr) due to coronal hole fast winds. Peak speeds have now likely been reached with a slow decline expected, back to Slightly Elevated into day 2 (12 Apr) and eventually Slow-Ambient later day 3 or day 4 (13/14 Apr).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4), with a chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals (Kp 5) day 1, before becoming Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) with a Chance of Active (Kp 4) from day 2 (12 Apr) onward.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels with solar radiation storms unlikely.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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