Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds perhaps with combined weak glancing coronal mass ejection effects are likely to bring enhancements to the auroral oval through the weekend. Aurora sightings will be mainly at high latitudes, but with a chance of reaching northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds perhaps with combined weak glancing coronal mass ejection effects are likely to bring enhancements to the auroral oval through the weekend. Aurora sightings will be mainly at high latitudes, with a chance from the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. Sightings may be limited by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of further isolated Moderate class flares. Minor Geomagnetic Storms Likely, Chance of Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Days 1 and 2 (17-18 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Moderate, peaking with a low level Moderate class flare at 17/1029 UTC from the large region in the southeast. There are eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. The aforementioned region in the southeast is the largest region on the disk, with a large asymmetric trailing portion and a compact cluster of connected spots. Another region of note resides in the southwest disc, it is showing some magnetic complexity in its southern trailing portion. All remaining spots are smaller and simple at present.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed early on the 15th, most likely far-sided, from the northwest. It has been analysed as likely missing Earth, but with a small chance of a weak glancing blow on Day 1 (17 Jan).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated transient effects, possibly followed by the early onset of CH15/+ after around 17/0200 UTC. Solar wind speeds were Strong throughout. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Moderate, before falling to Weak after 17/0200 UTC. The north-south component followed a similar trend, varying Moderately both in the positive and negative direction, before becoming weak and largely positive after 17/0200 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm (Kp 3-5).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A Coronal Mass Ejection from 15 Jan has a small chance of a weak glancing blow on day 1 (17 Jan). Solar winds are possibly already under the influence of coronal hole 15, with Strong wind speeds currently observed which may reach Very Strong. This trans-equatorial coronal hole is likely continue effecting Earth for much of the period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (KP 3-4) on day 1 (17 Jan), with G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) periods Likely and a Chance of G2/Moderate Storms due to ongoing coronal hole HSS effects and possible glancing CME effects. Activity is expected to gradually decline to become Quiet to Unsettled by the end of the period as the coronal hole fast winds begin to wane.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently at Background levels and expected to remain so in the absence of significant flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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