Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Slightly elevated solar winds associated with a coronal hole fast wind gives a slight chance of aurora for higher latitude locations where skies are clear. Activity is expected to reduce after the coming night (17 Mar) as the influence of the fast wind wanes. However, a coronal mass ejection (CME) which left the Sun on 16 Mar, is anticipated to arrive on 19 Mar, which is likely to give the chance of aurora at higher latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Slightly elevated solar winds associated with a coronal hole fast wind gives a slight chance of aurora for higher latitude locations where skies are clear. Activity is expected to reduce after the coming night (17 Mar) as the influence of the fast wind wanes. However, a coronal mass ejection (CME) which left the Sun on 16 Mar, is anticipated to arrive on 19 Mar, which is likely to give the chance of aurora at higher latitudes, where skies are clear.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: A coronal mass ejection (CME) is anticipated to arrive at Earth on 19 Mar, with G1-G2/Minor-Moderate storms likely.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity reached Moderate levels, with two Moderate class flares observed from a region approaching the south-centre disc. There are currently five sunspot regions on the visible disc. The main source of recent activity is the aforementioned region in the south and displays some magnetic complexity. The other regions are small, magnetically simple and either generally stable or showing only slow evolution.
The aforementioned Moderate-class flare originating from a mature sunspot region in the southeast produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) which has been analysed and results show an Earth-directed component. The CME is anticipated to arrive at Earth on Day 3 (19 Mar). No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. Further CMEs may have occurred on the morning of the 17 March, however relevant coronagraph imagery is awaited to conduct an analysis.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of a fast wind from an elongated coronal hole, with solar winds initially at Strong levels (around 550km/s) but slowly waned to Slightly Elevated levels, currently just below 450km/s. The Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate solar activity is expected, but with an ongoing chance of isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are expected to remain at Slightly Elevated levels, as the coronal hole fast wind continues to slowly wane throughout the period. Meanwhile, a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the Moderate-class flare on the 16 Mar is anticipated to arrive at Earth on Day 3 (19 Mar). Further CMEs may have occurred on the morning of the 17th March, but relevant imagery is awaited to conduct an analysis.
Geomagnetic activity expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp1-2), with Unsettled intervals on Days 1 and 2 (17-18 Mar). The anticipated CME arrival on Day 3 (19 Mar) is likely to enhance geomagnetic activity, increasing to Active (Kp 4), with G1-G2/Minor-Moderate geomagnetic storms likely, which may persist into Day 4 (20 Mar). There is a very slight chance of G3 (strong) storm during this period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background levels.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: