Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a chance of aurora sightings from northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes on Wednesday evening and into Thursday due to the combination of ongoing fast solar winds and a weak Coronal Mass Ejection arrival. Otherwise the auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a chance of aurora sightings from Tasmania and southern New Zealand on Wednesday evening and into Thursday, due to the combination of ongoing fast solar winds and a weak Coronal Mass Ejection arrival. Otherwise the auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms Day 1 (18 Feb) from Coronal Mass Ejection arrival.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is Low, with only common class flares observed.
There are five sunspot on the visible disc, however these are all relatively small and simple. The most notable visible region is is in the east, however this has shown sign of decay in recent hours.
No Earth directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed declining coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were initially strong at around 650-700 km/s, but showed a gradual decline through the period to current elevated levels around 550 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with a very gradual declining trend. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to unsettled (Kp2-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is forecast through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME (coronal mass ejection) from a weak eruption on 16 Feb is expected to arrive on Day 1 at 18/1900 UTC +/- 8 hrs with a glancing impact. Otherwise fast winds of CH24/+ are expected to gradually ease through the period, although this could be fairly erratic at times.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected, however given the current solar wind speeds, there remains a chance of an isolated Active and slight chance isolated G1 Minor Storm on day 1 (17 Feb) if any sustained southward IMF is observed. Any CME influence on day 2 (18 Feb) brings a chance for a further spell of Active to G1 Minor Storms, with a slight chance of an isolated G2 Moderate Storm.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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