Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Background conditions are expected until either later on 21 Dec or into 22 Dec UTC, when the next fast stream of solar wind may arrive. This brings an increased chance of aurora sightings extending to the north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Background conditions are expected until either later on 21 Dec or into 22 Dec UTC, when the next fast stream of solar wind may arrive. This brings an increased chance of aurora sightings perhaps extending to the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Storms Days 2-4 (21-23 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity reached Moderate levels with 2 flares - one at 19/1558UTC from beyond the southwest limb, and at 20/0753 UTC from a small new region in the northeast. There are currently six active regions on the visible disc. All visible spot groups are small and magnetically simple. There are also signs of a new region rotating onto the northeast limb, which is showing some brightness in satellite imagery.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed a waning connection to coronal hole fast winds. The wind speed declined from elevated levels between 500-550km/s to become slightly elevated around 450 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component also varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to remain generally Low, but with a slight chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast. The current slightly elevated wind speeds are expected to continue to gradually decrease into the start of Day 2 (21 Dec), likely becoming slow-ambient. Another fast wind is then expected to arrive during Day 2 and into Day 3 (21-22 Dec), with strong wind speeds likely continuing into Day 4 (23 Dec).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp 1-2) at first, with an increasing likelihood of Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) intervals during Days 2-3 and a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals. This risk peaking on Day 3 then starting to decline on Day 4.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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