Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate class solar flares expected, slight chance of Strong solar flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity during the last 24 hours has been Moderate with six Moderate solar flares, the largest peaking at 29/1607UTC from an unnumbered region around the northeast limb. There are five sunspots on the disc currently clearly visible. AR4291, located in the southwest disc, is a relatively complex region, although solar flaring from this region has been insignificant so far. A new active region, recently numbered AR4294 continues to rotate around the south-eastern limb and as such remains difficult to analyse in detail, though appears to be a large and complex region with multiple spots evident, likely with more detail still to emerge. The remaining regions are all smaller, magnetically simple and stable.

Occasional coronal mass ejection activity was observed on or around the east limb, and analysis remains ongoing. No clearly Earth-directed ejecta was observed in available imagery however.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters showed continued influence from fast solar winds. Solar wind speeds were Elevated to Strong. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak. The important north-south component, Bz, was also Weak and highly variable in direction, although generally favouring a negative (southward) orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at or close to Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Generally Moderate solar activity is forecast to continue into the period, with occasional Moderate solar flares expected. There is a Slight Chance of isolated Strong solar flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) forecast. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) initially, with a slight chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) interval though Day 1 (30 Nov) as current Strong solar winds slowly decline. Geomagnetic activity should gradually trend toward Quiet (Kp1-2) with a Chance of Unsettled (Kp3) intervals from Day 2 (01 Dec) onward, although confidence reduces by the end of the period with the potential for further fast solar wind influence.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is at, or near normal background levels and Likely to remain at similar levels during the four-day period, though with a rising Slight Chance of reaching S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm levels.