Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The onset of faster solar winds is likely to give some enhancement to the auroral through the 10th and into the 11th of April. Aurora likely to be visible over northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes at times, with a slight chance of viewings further south.
Southern Hemisphere
The onset of faster solar winds is likely to give some enhancement to the auroral through the 10th and into the 11th of April (UTC). Aurora could then be visible from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes, with a slight chance of viewings further north.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm activity likely Day 1 (10 Apr) with fast solar wind arrival.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with a single low-level Moderate class flare in the west. There are four sunspot regions visible on the Earth-facing disc. Further analysis of AR4409 in the west is becoming impossible as it moves towards the western limb, therefore it's classification remains conserved, with a moderately complex magnetic structure. All remaining spots are small and stable.
There have been no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in available imagery during the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed generally Slow-Ambient conditions. The wind speed was between Slightly Elevated to Slow-Ambient, 340-420km/s. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was weak initially, but increased through the second half of the period to reach moderate levels at times. The important north-south component, Bz, varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were near normal background levels, well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Very Low, with only a slight chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections currently in the forecast. Solar wind speeds are expected to be at slow-ambient levels until the expected onset of faster solar winds through Day 1 (10 Apr). Elevated to perhaps Strong solar winds are expected to persist into Day 2 (11 Apr), steadily declining into Days 3 and 4 (12-13 Apr) with winds returning to Slightly-Elevated levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled at first, rising through Day 1 (10 Apr) to generally Unsettled to Active levels (Kp3-4), with G1/Minor Storm intervals (Kp5) likely, and a slight chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals. Unsettled to Active levels (Kp3-4) persisting into Day 2 (11 Apr) with a slight chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals continuing. Into Days 3 and 4 (12-13 Apr), conditions likely returning to Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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