Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain at or near background levels over the next few days. A coronal hole fast wind is anticipated to arrive either late 17, or 18 April bringing an increased chance of enhanced auroral activity this weekend, with viewing possible across Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain at or near background levels over the next few days. A coronal hole fast wind is anticipated to arrive either late 17, or 18 April UTC bringing an increased chance of enhanced auroral activity this weekend, with viewing possible across south of New Zealand and similar latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Likely G1/Minor, Chance G2/Moderate Geomagnetic activity days 3 & 4 (17-18 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Very Low. There are four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The two in the north are of note, both with large leading portions, the one in the northwest is a sparsely populated spot with no significant recent development, while the spot in the northeast continues to develop, with growth within the trailing and intermediate regions. Both regions have a relatively simple magnetic structure. The other two regions in the southwest are simple and stable.
Although occasional Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were in evidence in coronagraph imagery, none were identified as having any Earth-directed component.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind was Slow-Ambient. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the north-south component also Weak and mostly positive (northward). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Very Low, with a slight chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections in the forecast. Solar winds are expected to remain at or near background levels until the large, trans-equatorial coronal hole currently approaching centre disk connects with Earth late day 3 (17 Apr) or early day 4 (18 Apr), with wind speeds becoming Strong (600-700 km/s).
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mostly Quiet days 1 to 3 (15 to 17 Apr) with a chance of Unsettled intervals. From late day 3 into day 4 (17-18 Apr) activity is expected to increase due to the onset of fast winds, with G1/Minor Storms considered Likely, a Chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals and a Slight Chance of isolated G3/Strong Storm intervals occurring.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background levels with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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