Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible on Wednesday due to the ongoing fast solar winds. However, any visibility will remain limited to the highest latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible on Wednesday due to the ongoing fast solar winds. However, any visibility will remain limited to the highest latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storms day 3 (25 Apr)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with occasional Common-class flares, the largest from the sunspot region on the northeast disc. This is the most notable of the four sunspot region visible, however this has seen its recent development slow and some reduction occur within its intermediate spots. The other three regions are inactive and showing signs of decay.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds declined from Elevated at just over 500km/s, to be Slightly Elevated at near 450km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak, with the north-south component variable in direction and also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected to continue, with only a slight chance of rising to Moderate with isolated Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Slightly elevated solar winds are expected to continue easing to Background with the next enhancement expected to from the fast winds from the coronal hole in the southwest disc. These are most likely on day 3 (25 Apr). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled at first, but increasing to be Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) with a chance of G1 Minor Storm (Kp5) with the onset of the fast winds.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to continue at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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