Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible on Wednesday due to the ongoing fast solar winds. However, any visibility will remain limited to the highest latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible on Wednesday due to the ongoing fast solar winds. However, any visibility will remain limited to the highest latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms day 4 (25 Apr)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with frequent Common-class flares, the largest from the simple bipolar sunspot region in the southeast. There are four sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest in the northwest remains inactive, and is now showing decay with the reduction and breakup of its trailer spot, although a new unnumbered spot has emerged to its south. While small, the most development region is in the northeast, and has developed a slightly more complicated magnetic structure.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Fast winds from a coronal hole persisted through the period. Solar wind speed was mainly Elevated at 500-550km/s, but briefly Slightly Elevated 21/0000-0300 UTC at 450-500km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak, with its north-south component also Weak but perhaps just favouring a southward orientation. Geomagnetic activity remained Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High Energy Protons) remained at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected, with a slight chance of reaching Moderate due to isolated M-class flares, most likely from the recently developing region in the northeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs, with recent eruptions expected to miss. Otherwise fast winds are expected to continue, but with a gradual decline towards Background by day 3 (24 Apr). The next enhancement is likely to be from a further, weaker coronal hole and its fast winds on day 4 (25 Apr). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a decreasing chance of Active intervals day 1 (22 Apr), before increasing day 4 (25 Apr) to be Unsettled to Active with a chance of G1 Minor Storms.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High Energy Protons) is forecast to stay at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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