Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Aurora is expected to be at or near background levels until later on Thursday (UTC), when the onset of a coronal hole fast wind is likely to give some enhancement to the auroral oval. Aurora is then likely to be visible over northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes, with a slight chance of viewings further south.
Southern Hemisphere
Aurora is expected to be at or near background levels until later on Thursday (UTC), when the onset of a coronal hole fast wind is likely to give some enhancement to the auroral oval. Aurora could then be visible from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes, with a slight chance of viewings further north.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm activity likely Days 1-2 (09-10 Apr) with fast solar wind arrival. Chance of further R1/Minor Radio blackouts.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with a single low-level Moderate class flare in the west. There are five sunspot regions visible on the Earth-facing disc. The largest region in the west is becoming increasingly difficult to analyse as it moves towards the western limb, some internal development remains visible with continued signs of a moderately complex magnetic structure. All remaining spots stable or in slight decline.
There have been no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in available imagery during the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind was near Background. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak. The important north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were near normal background levels, well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain generally Low to Moderate, with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares. This risk reducing with time.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections currently in the forecast. Solar wind speeds are expected to be at slow-ambient levels until the expected onset of faster solar winds later Day 1 (09 Apr). Elevated to Strong solar winds are expected to persist through Day 2 (10 Apr), steadily declining into Days 3 and 4 (11-12 Apr) with winds returning to Slightly-Elevated levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled at first. Then, later Day 1 (09 Apr) into early Day 2 (10 Apr) Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals (Kp4-5) are likely to develop, with a slight chance of a G2/Moderate Storm interval (Kp6), due to the onset of fast winds. Into Days 3 and 4 (11-12 Apr), conditions likely returning to Quiet to Unsettled levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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