Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrived late on 10 Jan (UTC), with aurora becoming enhanced for a time, mainly across northern Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes. Further aurora sightings are possible in northern Scotland and similar latitudes, but this is considered low confidence.
Southern Hemisphere
A glancing Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrived late on 10 Jan (UTC), with aurora becoming enhanced for a time. Further viewings are possible for Tasmania, New Zealand's South Island, and similar geomagnetic latitudes though this is considered low confidence. Limited hours of darkness at this time of year may limit the visibility.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor geomagnetic Storms days 1 and 2 (12 and 13 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate, with a long duration Moderate-class flare originating from just beyond the east limb, probably associated with an ex-sunspot region, which will probably rotate onto the visible disc within the next 24 hours. There are currently three sunspot regions on the disc. The largest, in the south-centre disc, has seen continued fading of its intermediate spots.
The long duration flare on the eastern limb released a relatively fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and this has been analysed and modelled and is not expected to be Earth directed with no other Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of continued Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) effects. This arrived late on 10 Jan, and combined with coronal hole fast wind influence solar winds have been mostly at Elevated levels, peaking near 600km/s. The Magnetic Field was at Moderate levels initially, with a decline to Weak levels. The all important north-south component, Bz, was Moderate to Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active, with Minor Storm intervals observed between 11/1500-2100 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 08 Jan following an filament eruption near AR4334, arrived at Earth late on 10 Jan. Waning CME influence is on-going, with solar winds near Elevated levels. Solar winds might dip to Slightly Elevated levels during Day 1 (12 Jan) otherwise remaining mostly above due to a further re-enhancement from the easternmost portion of a coronal hole.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active on Day 1 (12 Jan), with a Chance of Minor Storm intervals. During days 3 and 4 (14 and 15 Jan) conditions probably becoming mostly Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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