Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate class solar flares expected, slight chance of Strong solar flares.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity during the last 24 hours has been Moderate with several Moderate solar flares, the largest peaking at 29/1607UTC from a region beyond the northeast limb.

There are currently six sunspots on the visible disc. The most notable of these continues to rotate around the south-eastern limb and remains difficult to analyse in detail, although it is a significantly large and complex region with multiple large spots evident.  A modest size bipolar region is located in the southwest disc and has some magnetic complexity, with a similar size bipolar region in the northwest, which has shown some additional minor spot development on its northern periphery. The remaining regions are all smaller, magnetically simple and largely stable.

Occasional coronal mass ejection activity was observed on or around the east limb, and analysis remains ongoing. No clearly Earth-directed ejecta was observed in available imagery however.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters showed continued influence from fast solar winds. Solar wind speeds were Elevated to Strong, with a slight decline evident in recent hours. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak. The important north-south component, Bz, was also Weak and highly variable in direction, although often favouring a negative (southward) orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at or close to Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Generally Moderate solar activity is forecast to continue into the period, with occasional Moderate solar flares expected. There is a Slight Chance of isolated Strong solar flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) forecast. 

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) initially, with a slight chance of a G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) interval though Day 1 (30 Nov) as current Strong solar winds slowly decline. Geomagnetic activity should gradually trend toward Quiet (Kp 1-2) with a Chance of Unsettled (Kp 3) intervals from Day 2 (01 Dec) onward, although confidence reduces by the end of the period with the potential for further fast solar wind influence.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is at, or near normal background levels and Likely to remain at similar levels during the four-day period, though with a rising Slight Chance of reaching S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm levels.