Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate to High Solar Activity expected. G1 Minor Storms Likely, Chance of G2 Moderate Storms day 1-2 (03-04 Dec).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low over the past 24 hours with a peak flare from the small but complex region in the northeast. There are nine other regions on the visible disc. Of these, there is a collection of large spots across the southeast disc, these are split into three regions. The most notable is the central-most spot, this is the largest and most magnetically complex spot with multiple parts which may by cause instability and possible flaring. The other two regions in the southeast are large yet less magnetically complex. The remaining regions, mostly located in the western hemisphere, appear smaller and simple.

The main coronal mass ejection of note was from the Strong flare early on 01 Dec, and a subsequent sympathetic filament eruption. This resulted in a complex eruption, with the majority of the material passing north and behind Earth, however there are some signs that the filament eruption potential included a component deflected more towards the Earth-Sun line. Any subsequent coronal mass ejection is likely to glance at most, perhaps late on day 1 (03 Dec), however this is very low confidence. No further Earth-Directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters showed declining fast winds before a perturbation was observed starting around 02/2300UTC either associated with a weak coronal mass ejection effects or perhaps the prerequisite to the solar sector boundary crossing ahead of the next coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds gradually fell from Slightly Elevated to Slow-Ambient. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field started Weak, then became Moderate after 03/0500UTC, on a continual rise since. The north-south component started Weak, but followed a similar increase after 03/0730UTC, and was notable negatively (southward) orientated peaking at Moderately negative at 03/1143UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate or High solar activity is expected, with isolated Moderate class flares and a chance of isolated Strong solar flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no clear Earth-directed CMEs, however the filament eruption after the Strong flare on 01 Dec may have an Earth-directed component that could arrive late day 1 (03 Dec). The next fast wind enhancement, from the next coronal hole, is expected late on day 1 to day 2 (03-04 Dec), and this may combine with any CME arrival.

Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet with isolated Unsettled intervals initially on day 1 (02 Dec), increasing to Active to G1 Minor Storm with any coronal hole fast wind, and a chance of stronger activity, especially if any glancing CME arrival is also observed alongside this, however this is very low confidence.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring. However, there is an increasing chance of his rising as a response to any significant flares from the sunspot regions currently on the eastern disc, especially as these move towards the centre disc.