Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a slight chance of minor enhancement to the aurora 16-17 Dec due to increased solar winds, with aurora potentially visible at high geomagnetic latitudes including northern Scotland given clear skies.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a slight chance of minor enhancement to the auroral oval on 16-17 Dec due to increased solar winds, however given the limited hours of darkness and high geomagnetic latitudes of any display, views are expected to be limited.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storm Days 1-2 (16-17 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Low in the last 24 hours.
There are currently six active regions on the visible disc. A region in the southwest remains the largest group on the disc. This region, having seen development in recent days, now looks increasingly mature and stable. The remainder of front-sided spot groups remain small and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The measured solar wind suggested a connection to a coronal hole high speed stream.
The solar wind speed was initially Slightly Elevated around 450km/s on a steady trend. Speeds saw a slight increase from around 15/1630UTC with a larger increase from 15/2300UTC, reaching Elevated to Strong levels around 580-620km/s by the end of the period. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was initially steady and generally weak, but saw a sustained rise from around 15/1630UTC reaching moderate levels. The important north-south component varied at weak to moderate levels, but spent most of the period in the positive (northward) sector.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was for Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be generally low, with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class activity.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast. The onset of faster solar winds through Day 1 into Day 2 (16-17Dec) may bring peak solar wind speeds of around 600-650km/s, before declining steadily Day 3 (18 Dec) onwards, with wind speeds returning to slightly elevated levels by end of Day 4 (19 Dec). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), with Active (Kp4) intervals likely at times. There is a Slight Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms G1 (Kp5) in association with solar wind enhancement Days 1-2 (16-17 Dec).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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