Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to remain near background levels at first. There is an increasing chance of minor auroral activity from 08-09 Jan due to coronal hole fast winds, this mainly confined to high latitudes, but possibly visible from parts of northern Scotland where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral activity is expected to remain near background levels at first. There is an increasing chance of minor auroral activity from 08-09 Jan due to coronal hole fast winds, this mainly confined to high latitudes. Auroral sightings are unlikely however due to short hours of darkness.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals, mainly Day 4 (09 Jan). Reducing chance of M-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity is Low, with only Common-class flares observed. There are now ten sunspot regions on the visible disc. Three regions in the southwest are relatively simple regions, with one of these now becoming difficult to analyse as it approaches the western limb. Another region in the southeast is currently the largest region on the disc, showing some minor complexity amongst its emerging intermediate region, however now it is more clearly visible is beginning to look like it may be two separate regions. Another region in the east has been breaking apart as it develops some leading spots which are showing minor magnetic complexity. Remaining regions appear small and simple at present.
A weak CME that left the Sun at 05/1842UTC has been analysed as likely to miss Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs have been seen in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were at background levels. Wind speeds were slow, mostly varying between 330-390 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field has been weak. The north-south component was weakly southward directed at first, switching to weakly northward directed around 06/1130 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a reducing chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A weak CME observed leaving the Sun on 05 Jan has been analysed and is considered most likely to miss Earth, with no other Earth directed CMEs expected. Two coronal holes are currently near centre disc, likely giving a fast wind onset perhaps later on Day 2 or more probably into Day 3 (08-09 Jan). Peak wind speeds of around 700 km/s are possible.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled Days 1-2 (07-08 Jan), becoming Unsettled to Active with an increasing chance of G1/ Minor Storm intervals later on Day 2 into Day 3 (08-09 Jan) as the fast wind arrives. Conditions are then likely to ease again through Day 4 (10 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is likely to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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