Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds are likely to bring spells of aurora visibility across northern parts of the UK overnight Sunday into Monday (UTC), and similar geomagnetic latitudes. This activity will ease through Monday and into Tuesday, with any viewing becoming more restricted to highest latitudes, and fading to background by Wednesday.
Southern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds are likely to bring spells of aurora visibility across southern parts of the New Zealand and Tasmania overnight Sunday into Monday (UTC), and similar geomagnetic latitudes. This activity will ease through Monday into Tuesday, with any viewing becoming more restricted to across Antarctica, and fading to background by Wednesday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms day 1 (19 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with one Common-class flare observed from the region near the northwest limb. There only two magnetically simple regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest is approaching the north-centre disc, however this remains a stable bipolar group with little development. The other region is a simple unipolar spot.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) have been observed, however a eruption have been observed from the southeast disc. The most recent was early on 18 Apr, which has been analysed and is likely to miss behind Earth's orbit.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The onset of coronal hole fast wind was observed. Solar winds were initially at Background, around 370km/s, before rising to elevated levels from 18/1200 UTC, reaching between 500-600km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), was Moderate to Strong. The north-south component, while showing some variability was moderate to strongly negative (southward) early in the period, becoming weakly positive (northward) end of the period. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active, with G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals observed at 18/0300-0600UTC and 18/0900-1200 UTC, with a G2/Moderate storm (Kp6) interval observed at 18/0600-0900UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity expected, with only a slight chance of isolated Moderate class flares, most likely from the region in the north-centre disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME arrivals are currently not expected, however there remains a small chance of a glancing impact early day 1 (19 Apr). This is from a CME missing to the south and east that left the Sun on 15 Apr. Otherwise the ongoing fast solar winds expected to continue, likely peaking Strong at around 700 km/s on day 1 (19 Apr) before showing a gradual decline later in the period. Active to G1 Minor Storms, with G2 Moderate storm intervals, are expected day 1 (19 Apr). This then easing to be Quiet to Active by the end of day 1 (19 Apr) and through to day 4 (22 Apr), but still with a chance of G1 Minor Storms. This G1 risk gradually decreasing through the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms forecast.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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