Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement late on Saturday or more likely on Sunday (UTC) due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some brief glimpses from the far north of Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement during the southern hemisphere Sunday night due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some glimpses from far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic storming late Day 2 or Day 3. Chance of isolated M-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with ten sunspot regions currently on the Earth-facing disc. Peak flare was a Common class at 27/0301 UTC from simple and relatively small region in the northeast. Of the other notable regions on the disc, the first is also in the northeast, a large region which developed some complexity in its trailing spot. In the southeast, there is another interesting active region currently coming over the limb. It has produced several Common class flares and potentially a few Coronal Mass Ejections. It may have some complexity when it can be analysed more accurately when in a better viewing angle. The other regions are smaller, also magnetically simple, and were stable or in decay.
Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed late on the 26 Mar leaving the Sun from a region just behind or on the southeast limb. The first is not Earth directed, the second is yet to be analysed but is unlikely to be Earth directed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds were predominantly Slightly Elevated generally between 430-480 km/s, but did occasionally reach Elevated levels, peaking at 518 km/s at 26/1941 UTC. Since 27/1000 UTC, winds have been between Ambient and Slightly Elevated conditions with speeds between 380-420 km/s. The solar wind's magnetic field remained Weak. The north-south component was variable and Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to be Low, but with an ongoing chance of isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs currently in the forecast. Solar winds are expected to gradually ease towards Background, before the next fast wind enhancement from a coronal hole feature. This enhancement is most likely to arrive late on day 2 or early day 3 (28-29 Mar) with Slightly Elevated to Elevated solar winds (450-550 km/s) expected. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled with a slight chance of Active intervals. The next fast wind enhancement is expected to increase activity to Unsettled to Active levels, with only a chance of Minor geomagnetic storms late day 2 and through day 3.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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