Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Sunday into Monday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear. Confidence is lower than is typical.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Sunday into Monday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora at high geomagnetic latitudes. Confidence is lower than is typical.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class flares likely, slight chance of Strong flares, Radiation storms and G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Activity over the last 24 hours has been Low with only Common-class flares, in stark contrast to previous activity. The largest and most magnetically complex group on the disc remains the large region in the northwest, despite the recent lack of significant flaring. As it retains fairly significant magnetic complexity, further larger flares remain possible. The other region of interest is in the southeast, which had some weak magnetic complexity in its trailing region, although this is now breaking apart. Remaining regions currently appear smaller and simpler.
No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed waning coronal hole fast winds. The wind speed showed a gradual decline from elevated around 550km/s winds to slightly elevated levels near 450km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly weak with the north-south component varying weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Despite the recent lack of flare activity, Moderate-class flares are still considered likely, with a slight chance of Strong flares from the large region in the northwest of the disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The geomagnetic forecast carries relatively low confidence. A CME that left the Sun on 03 Feb may give a weak glancing blow on Day 1 (08 Feb). No further Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. The current fast wind is continuing to wane, however another fast wind is likely to arrive later Day 1 or into Day 2 (09 Feb). Wind speeds of 500-600 km/s seem probable, with a gradual decline later in the period.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be Quiet to Unsettled to start, but fast wind and possible CME influence gives the potential for Active intervals with a slight chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There remains a slight chance of solar radiation rising above the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold, should there be further large flares from the large region in the northwest of the disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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