Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain at or near background levels until a fast wind arrives either late 17 April or early 18 April UTC. This brings an increased chance of enhanced auroral activity this weekend, with viewing possible across Scotland, perhaps northern England, and similar magnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to remain at or near background levels until a fast wind arrives either late 17 April or early 18 April UTC. This brings an increased chance of enhanced auroral activity this weekend, with viewing possible from the south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor storms expected Days 1-3 (17-19 Apr) with Moderate storms likely Days 1-2.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Low, with only low level Common class flares. Most of these originated from a region in the northeast, which is currently the largest and most magnetically complex region of the overall three regions on the disc. This region in the northeast has show recent slight growth, becoming moderately sized and magnetic complexity.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection's (CME's) have been observed in recent imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind remained at background conditions with very weak coronal mass ejection influence. Wind speed was Slow-Ambient. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to continue at Very Low or Low levels, with a chance of isolated Moderate flares, mainly from the larger region in the northeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME which left the Sun on 15 Apr is most likely to miss below Earth's orbit, but there is a small risk of a glancing blow Day 2 into Day 3 (18-19 Apr). Solar winds will start at background levels. The next enhancement will be a large coronal hole, bringing Strong wind speeds around 600-700km/s either late Day 1 or early Day 2 (17-18 Apr), with these persisting through Day 3 (19 Apr). During Day 4 (20 Apr) a gradual decline to Elevated winds speeds (500-600 km/s) is likely.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet initially. From late Day 1 into Day 2 activity is expected to increase, with G1/Minor geomagnetic storms expected, G2/Moderate storms likely, and a chance of isolated G3/Strong Storm intervals occurring. Activity will then decline from Day 3 in the absence of any CME influence.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at background levels with no solar radiation storms expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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