Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The onset of coronal hole fast winds will bring the possibility of enhanced aurora Saturday night across northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear. Thereafter aurora is expected to return to background levels
Southern Hemisphere
The onset of coronal hole fast winds will bring the possibility of enhanced aurora during the UTC Saturday night from southernmost parts of New Zealand and Tasmania, as well as across Antarctica where skies are clear. Thereafter aurora is expected to return to background levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms, mainly Day 1 (08 Mar).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with no significant flares. There are four sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, all are stable and magnetically simple.
A CME followed a filament eruption which was observed in the southeast quadrant around 06/0230UTC. This has been modelled with a miss behind and below Earth orbit most likely, with a probability of a weak glance around Day 3 (10 Mar).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds observed by ACE at L1 started at slow to slightly elevated levels before a connection from negative CH29's high speed stream after 07/1100 UTC with strong levels by 07/1900 UTC reaching above 600 km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), was mainly Moderate and the important northwards-southwards component, was moderately variable between +10/-9nT. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low levels are forecast with a slight chance rising to Moderate, due to isolated Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME (coronal mass ejection) which left the sun at 06/0230UTC is expected to mostly miss behind and below Earth's orbit, but may give a weak glance around Day 3 (10 Mar). Earth is in a fast wind and solar winds are expected to be at elevated to strong levels on Day 1 (08 Mar) with a decline from Day 2 (09 Mar) likely and probably returning to background levels by Day 3 (10 Mar).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mainly Unsettled to Active on Day 1 (08 Mar) with a chance of isolated Minor Storm intervals. Through Day 2 (09 Mar) activity is expected to decline to become Quiet to Unsettled. There remains a slight chance of further Active to Minor Storm intervals around Day 2 (10 Mar) due to possible glancing CME effects.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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