Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at predominantly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible Sunday, due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing CME. However, any visible aurora will likely be limited to northern Scotland and similar latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible during the southern hemisphere Sunday, due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing Coronal Mass Ejection. However, any visibility will likely remain limited to high latitudes such as New Zealand's south island.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Further M-class flare activity likely throughout. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Day Days (25-26 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity is now Moderate, with two Moderate-Class flares in the past 24 hours. The peak was an M1.3 flare at 26/0759.
There are now seven sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest and most magnetically complex is in the northern central disc. This continues to show a complex magnetic structure. A recently active sunspot region has recently rotated over the western limb. The sunspot region in the southeast continues to display a notable complexity. A newer spot, which is now rotating over the western limb, is also starting to showing signs of complexity, though this may change as it comes further into view. Other regions are smaller and magnetically simple in comparison.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:
Solar wind speeds have increased to Slightly Elevated at 400-430km/s after a weak transient, and likely Coronal Hole influence. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), Bt, was generally Weak but rose to Moderate around 26/1930 UTC. The north-south component, Bz favoured a positive (northward) direction, but became generally negative (southward) from around 26/1600 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp0-4)
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at near Background.
GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux was at background. The associated 24-hour fluence was above the Active threshold initially, but reduced below this from 26/1800. the observed fluence at 26/0000 UTC was 2.54e8 integrated pfu.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate to High solar activity is expected to continue at first, with a likelihood of occasional M‑class flares and a slight chance of further isolated X‑class flares. Flare risk expected to decrease slightly through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Several weak Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) may arrive at Earth, most likely on Day 2 (26 Apr).
Solar winds are likely to peak around 450-500km/s through Day 1 (26 Apr) before slowly declining Day 2 (27 Apr) onwards. Geomagnetic activity due to the fast winds is likely to be fairly muted due to unfavourable polarity of the coronal holes for this time of year. However, this evolution is likely to be complicated by potential glancing CME influences through the period.
Geomagnetic activity will likely be Quiet to Active (Kp2-4) for Day 1 (26 Apr). There is a chance of G1/Minor Storms (Kp5) on Day 1 due to coronal hole fast winds and any glancing CME impacts. Through Day 2 into Day 3 (27-28 April) geomagnetic activity is expected to become Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES‑18 high‑energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is forecast to remain at background levels throughout the period. The recent significant flares produced by the sunspot region which has moved over the western limb have so far had negligible impact on proton flux levels, and with this moving off the disc the risk of further enhancements is diminishing.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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