Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Fast solar winds have resulted in a minor enhancement to the auroral oval on 15 Feb that has since largely subsided. There remains a chance of aurora sightings from northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes where skies are clear. The auroral oval should return to background latitudes in the coming days.
Southern Hemisphere
Fast solar winds have resulted in a minor enhancement to the auroral oval on 15 Feb (UTC) that has since largely subsided. There remains a chance of aurora sightings from high latitudes, mainly Antarctica where skies are clear. The auroral oval should return to background latitudes in the coming days.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. Slight chance of further G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms 15-16 Feb.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low with only Common class flares observed. There are six sunspots on the visible disc, although the majority are small and all appear magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed CME's have been observed in the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of the connection to a coronal hole fast wind, with speeds increasing from around 400km/s (Slightly Elevated) to 700km/s (Strong), peaking at 752km/s at 15/1154 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, has been weak to moderate. The north-south component, Bz, was weak to moderate. Geomagnetic activity was initially Quiet, but increased to G1/Minor Storm levels 15/0000-0600 UTC, before easing to Unsettled levels thereafter.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain Low, but there is a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that left the Sun on 13 Feb is expected to miss above Earth's orbit, though there remains a slight chance of a glance either later Day 1 or early on Day 2 (15 or 16 Feb). Otherwise, no Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast.
Solar wind speeds are currently Elevated to Strong due to the fast wind from a large coronal hole. Enhanced solar winds are expected to continue throughout the four-day forecast period with a tendency for speeds to slowly decline from Day 2 (16 Feb) onwards.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Unsettled to Active on Days 1 and 2 (15-16 Feb), with a slight chance of isolated G1/Minor Storm intervals due to high-speed stream or CME influence. From Day 3 (17 Feb) activity should ease to become mostly Quiet to Unsettled.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is likely to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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