Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is the possibility of fast solar winds returning on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This could bring a chance of visible aurora to northern parts of Scotland where skies are clear. Similar conditions may persist Wednesday night into early Thursday, before activity returns to background conditions thereafter.
Southern Hemisphere
There is the possibility of fast solar winds returning on Tuesday UTC night into Wednesday UTC morning. This could allow aurora to reach the far south of Tasmania, New Zealand and similar latitudes where skies are clear. Similar conditions may persist Wednesday UTC night into early Thursday, before activity returns to background conditions thereafter. Sightings may be limited however by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Ongoing Chance of isolated M-class flares. Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals on Days 2-3 (28-29 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with a peak Common-class flare originating from a small sunspot region in the southeast quadrant of the disc.
There are seven sunspot regions on the Earth facing disc, one of which is currently unnumbered. Despite the number of sunspots on the disc, significant magnetic complexity is limited. A relatively small bipolar group in the southwest quadrant has shown some modest development and is marginally the most complex spot on the disc. Another recently emerged small bipolar group in the south centre disc is showing further slight development. Otherwise, remaining regions are either stable or showing signs of decay or simplification.
No significant Earth-directed CMEs were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a waning coronal hole fast wind influence. Wind speeds declined slowly and erratically from between 500-540km/s to Slightly Elevated, currently near 410km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak. The north-south component was Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was below the Minor level radiation storm level and on a very gradual declining trend.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to remain at generally Low levels, with a Chance of isolated Moderate flares and only a very Slight Chance of isolated Strong solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) currently feature in the forecast.
From late on Day 1 into Day 2 (27-28 Jan) there is the increasing chance of some influence from the HSS associated with CH17/-, with winds perhaps rising back to Elevated levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) but with a Chance of Active (Kp 4) intervals associated with the current waning fast wind from a coronal hole. Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals on Day 2 into Day 3 (28-29 Jan) due to a fast wind from the next coronal hole, with activity waning to mainly Quiet to Unsettled on Day 4 (30 Jan) as the fast winds begin to weaken.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is below the S1/Minor radiation storm level, with a Slight Chance of reaching S1/Minor Storm levels through the period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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