Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds bring a chance of minor enhancements to the auroral oval through the period. Any aurora sightings will be confined to high latitudes, with a chance of reaching northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds bring a chance of minor enhancements to the auroral oval through the period. Any aurora sightings will be confined to high latitudes, with a chance of reaching far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. Sightings may be limited by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares. Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate, peaking with a low level moderate-class flare at 17/2351 UTC from the large region in the southeast. There are seven sunspot regions on the visible disc. the aforementioned region in the southeast is the largest region on the disk, with a moderately complex magnetic structure. Another significant spot resides in the southwest, and is the second largest spot, though showing signs of decline within the southern portion. All remaining spots are smaller or simple at present.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds indicated likely weakening coronal hole fast winds through the period. Solar wind speeds were Strong, gradually becoming Elevated by the end of the period. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component has been Weak throughout and largely positive. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No coronal mass ejections feature in the forecast. Solar winds remain under the influence of coronal hole fast winds, though now on an unexpected decreasing trend. Based on the previous rotation, fast winds are expected to continue for much of the period, perhaps becoming Strong again.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), with Active (Kp 4) intervals and a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals. A decreasing trend is most probable later in the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently at Background levels and expected to remain so in the absence of significant flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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