Space Weather Forecast Headline: Isolated Moderate-class flares likely. Geomagnetic Storms (G1/Kp5) likely on 30 Apr.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity was Moderate, with a low-end Moderate-class flare observed at 28/1353UTC from the moderately large, magnetically complex region located in the northwest disc. 

There are eight sunspot regions on the visible disc. Slight decay was observed in the leading and intermediate spots of the moderately large region in the northwest disc. Some consolidation of spots within the largest region on the disc, located in the northeast, was in evidence, however, the overall size of the sunspot group decreased slightly. Other moderately sized regions in the northwest and southeast disc indicated some slight growth, however, both regions maintain simple magnetic configurations at this time. 

A previously decayed region re-emerged in the southwest, meanwhile a new, unnumbered, simple region developed in the southeast.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were identified in available satellite imagery. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind speed indicated a slow, background regime with speeds decreasing from 370km/s to 320km/s by the end of the period. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was weak, while the important north-south component of the IMF was also weak. 

Geomagnetic activity was Quiet throughout. 

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low to Moderate solar activity is expected, with isolated Moderate-class flares considered likely. There is a slight chance of isolated Strong flares occurring and activity increasing to High levels.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Normal background solar winds are expected to continue until Day 1 (29 April) or more likely Day 2 (30 April) with the onset of a recurrent, but likely diminished coronal hole enhancement. Solar wind speeds should increase to slightly elevated to elevated levels before easing from Day 3 (01 May) onwards. 

There is a chance of a rather slow CME arrival during Day 2 (30 April), however, a lack of supporting coronagraph imagery for the candidate event of significant CME ejecta means that an arrival is not guaranteed. Therefore the likelihood and timing of any arrival is low confidence.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet on Day 1 (29 April), increasing to Active or G1/Kp5 levels on Day 2 (30 April), with a slight chance of occurring later on Day 1 should an earlier than expected onset of the recurrent coronal hole fast wind occur. Mainly Unsettled activity is expected by early Day 3 (01 May), then Quiet by Day 4 (02 May), but with a slight chance of further G1/Kp5 intervals at first should any CME enhancement be realised.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a daily slight chance of Solar Radiations Storms occurring, mainly from the magnetically complex region located in the northwest disc.