Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There are no enhancements to the solar wind currently forecast. Aurora activity is expected to be at or near background levels.
Southern Hemisphere
There are no enhancements to the solar wind currently forecast. Aurora activity is expected to be at or near background levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class flares expected, slight chance of Strong flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate with recent flares from a rapidly developing region in the northeast, reaching a peak at 01/1002 UTC. There are now six regions on the solar disc. The most noteworthy region currently on the disc is the rapidly developing region which is now showing magnetic complexity. This is now becoming a fairly large region and is continuing to grow, showing a number of mature spots. The majority of flare activity has come from this region in the last 24 hours. The remaining regions are all small and simple at present.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a waning coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds were initially slightly elevated, around 430 km/s, becoming background, near 340km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component weak and variable but mostly southward directed. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained at background levels with no Solar Radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Further Moderate-class flares are expected, with a slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs at present, however the rapidly developing sunspot region will be near centre disc by the end of this period, so if it produces any CMEs later in the period these would likely be Earth directed. Solar winds are now at background levels and expected to remain that way in the absence of any CMEs.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is near background levels. The rapidly developing sunspot region moves towards centre disc by the end of this period, giving an increasing slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor radiation storm level.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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