Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Tuesday night into Wednesday, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora across the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a low likelihood of slightly increased geomagnetic activity Wednesday morning, leading to a slight chance of visible aurora at high geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Strong flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only occasional small common class flares observed. There are eight visible regions on the disc, with the only region of note being the large and complex region on the northwest limb. While this is becoming harder to assess due to its location, it likely maintains a strong mixed polarity spot on its trailer.
The eruption of an arc of plasma, or 'filament', was observed from the centre disc from around 10/1840 UTC, however sufficient imagery for analysis of any subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is currently not available. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a slight enhancement, potentially from a weak connection to the fast winds from a small coronal hole. Solar wind speed, was mostly Slightly Elevated, initially around 400-450km/s, but with brief periods of 450-500km/s around 10/1200 UTC, and again 10/1600-2300 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak to Moderate with the north-south component also mostly weak mainly northward at first but becoming mainly southward from 11/1600 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3), with one Active interval (Kp4) at 10/2100-11/0000TUC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There remains a likelihood of isolated Moderate class flares on day 1 (11 Feb) mainly from the northwest limb region, with a chance of Strong (X-class) flares. This risk decreasing day 2 (12 Feb) onward, as the region moves further onto the far-side.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs, although this may change once imagery from the 10/1840UTC filament eruption is assessed. The current weak solar wind enhancement is expected to ease early on day 1 (11 Feb). No further enhancements are currently expected. Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with the slight chance of Active intervals at first. Activity soon easing to be mainly Quiet, with a decreasing chance of isolated Unsettled intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background, but with a chance of rising above as a result of any notable flares from the large and complex sunspot region on the northwest disc. This risk declining later in the period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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