Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Auroral displays returning to background. There is a small chance of further enhancement Sunday night with displays limited to northern Scotland where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Auroral displays returning to background. There is a small chance of further enhancement into the 6th April UTC with displays limited to far southern New Zealand where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storms. Likelihood of Moderate Solar flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate, with the peak flare a M7.5 observed from a relatively large region in the north-west that was observed at 04/0117UTC.
There are currently seven sunspot regions visible on the Earth-facing disc. An active region lying just west of north-centre disk has developed and remains the source of much of the recent flare activity. This region displays a complex magnetic structure with a delta spot on its intermediary spot in the northwest.
There is one Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) currently in the forecast associated with a Moderate class flare on 02 April, with the risk of a glancing blow later on Day 1 (05 Apr) or possibly early on Day 2 (06 Apr).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed continued coronal hole fast wind influence, combined with the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) during the 3rd April.
Solar wind started the period Strong at near 700 km/s, with a steady decline to current elevated levels around 550 km/s. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, was Weak and the important north-south component also varied Weakly with often southward values.
Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels as recorded by British Geological Survey (BGS).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels were above Background but below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold, with a declining trend noted after recent enhancement over the past few days
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar Activity is likely to remain Moderate, with further Moderate solar flares likely and a slight chance of an isolated Strong solar flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is one Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) currently in the forecast associated with a Moderate class flare on the 02 April, with the risk of a glancing blow later on Day 1 (05 Apr) or possibly early on Day 2 (06 Apr).
Earth is currently under the declining coronal hole fast wind and the CME (from the arrival at around 03/1500UTC) influence. Winds are expected to fall towards background levels by Day 3 (07 Apr), although the possible glancing arrival of the second CME lowers confidence.
Activity is expected to be at Quiet to Active levels, although there remains a chance of Minor-Geomagnetic Storm intervals initially and again should the second CME glancing blow occur later Day 1 into early Day 2 (05-06 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation remains slightly above background levels but on a slowly declining trend. There is a slight chance of S1 solar radiation storm throughout the period if a significant flare were to occur.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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