Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate solar flares. Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms on Days 3 and 4 (17-18 Jan).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity increased to Moderate following a Moderate-class flare at 14/2033UTC from a large and magnetically complex region located toward the southeast limb.

There are five sunspot regions on the Earth facing disc. The region located toward the southeast limb is a large and magnetically complex region and remains very difficult to analyse due to the view angle. However, there are hints of a delta configuration in its large trailer spot. In the northeast limb, this region has a moderately large lead spot with some small trailing spots also evident, but again the view angle prevents a definitive analysis. In the north central disc, there is an active region which continues to evolve with a delta trailing spot. A new and rapidly emerging group in the south-centre disc has some mixed polarity but is relatively magnetically simple at present.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed and is currently being analysed which could give a glancing blow to Earth.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of ongoing fast wind influence. Wind speeds were initially often in the range 500-550km/s. At 14/1420UTC winds increased to 550-600km/s before gradually decreasing to around 470km/s at 15/0525UTC. Winds then increased reaching 600-650km/s from 15/0820UTC where they have remained. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mainly Weak. The north-south component also varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly Low, but with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Solar wind speeds are currently Strong due to the ongoing coronal hole fast wind. A gradual and erratic decline in solar wind speeds towards Slightly Elevated to Background levels is expected through Days 1-2 (15-16 Jan). The next feature is the onset of a further fast wind, likely later on Day 3 (17 Jan). Wind speeds are expected to return Strong, likely reaching above 700 km/s.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be generally Quiet on Days 1-2 (15-16 Jan) with an initial slight chance of Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) intervals. Into Days 3 and 4 (17-18 Jan) activity is expected to increase to become Unsettled to Active, with a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently at Background levels and expected to remain so in the absence of significant flare activity.