Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes over the next few days, with only a slight chance of occasional enhancement.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes over the next few days, with only a slight chance of occasional enhancement.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms Day 1 (19 Feb).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with isolated Common-class flares. There are four sunspots on the visible disc, with the largest of these in the northwest. While simple, mature and inactive , this is the only bipolar region, with the other regions all smaller and also simple.
A large and bright eruption off the southeast limb on 17 Feb was followed by a fainter and harder to observe eruption from the southeast disc very early on 18 Feb. The subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was faint, and is still under analysis for any Earth-directed component.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a slow declining connection to a coronal hole fast wind. Solar wind speeds eased from Elevated at around 550 km/s, to be Slightly Elevated at 450 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak with the north-south component also weak and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is forecast through the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME from 16 Feb was expected to arrive late on 18 Feb, but has yet to be observed. This could still glance Earth early on day 1 (19 Feb). A further CME from the southeast remains under analysis. Otherwise solar winds are expected to continue at slightly elevated for much of the period. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with only a slight chance of Active intervals, mainly at first. Any CME arrival could bring a spell of Active to G1 Minor Storms on day 1 (19 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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