Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate to High Solar Activity expected. G1 Minor Storms expected, Chance of G2 Moderate Storms day 1 (04 Dec), decreasing day 2 (04 Dec).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate over the past 24 hours, with one Moderate class flare, peaking at 04/0236UTC from the northeast of the disc. There are nine regions on the visible disc. One of note resides in the northeast, it is a compact and complex region, with a magnetic shear line though the main trailing portion, leading to possible instability. Also of interest is the collection of large spots across the southeast disc, these are split into three regions. The most notable is the central-most spot, this is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk, now with multiple unstable mixed polarity spots in its intermediate and leading portion. This is followed by the eastern-most spot, which is another large spot, with some magnetic complexity now evident with at least one mixed polarity spot in the intermediate region. The western-most spot, consists of a moderately large leader which has numerous peripheral small spots and pores of differing polarity. The spot in the northeast responsible for the aforementioned moderate-class flare has developed a weak mixed polarity region. The remaining regions, appear smaller and simple at present.

No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed in coronagraph imagery, though a coronal mass ejection leaving the southeast disk from early 04 Dec is currently under analysis.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters indicate up to two coronal mass ejection arrivals before the connection to coronal hole fast winds. Solar wind speeds were Slightly Elevated before rising to near Elevated around 03/1700UTC, then a secondary rise to Strong after 03/2300UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was erratic but largely Moderate to Strong initially, with a peak observed at 03/2237UTC before a gradual decline back to Weak. The north-south component was largely Moderate until 04/0300UTC, and notably negative (southward) orientated until 04/0300UTC, but has since become weak and largely positive (northward) oriented. Geomagnetic activity was generally Active to G1/Minor Strom (Kp4-5), with an isolated G3 Strong Storm interval (Kp7) during 03/1800-2100UTC.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate or High solar activity is expected, with isolated Moderate class flares and a chance of isolated Strong solar flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections currently in the forecast, though a coronal mass ejection leaving the southeast disk from early 04 Dec is currently under analysis. Solar winds are currently Strong, as a result of fast winds. Fast winds will most likely persist through much of the period.

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be largely Unsettled to Active, with G1/Minor Storm intervals considered Likely and a Chance of G2/Moderate Storm intervals on day 1 (04 Dec). During day 2 (05 Dec), Unsettled to Active intervals are expected with a Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals and a Slight Chance of isolated G2/Moderate Storm intervals. Through days 3 and 4 (06/07 Dec) becoming Quiet to Unsettled with a Slight Chance G1/Minor Storm intervals.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring. However, there is an increasing chance of his rising as a response to any significant flares from the sunspot regions currently on the eastern disc, especially as these move westward.