Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be largely at Background levels on Wednesday through to Friday.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be largely at Background levels on Wednesday through to Friday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms on day 4 (07 Mar).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only isolated small Common-class flares observed. There are six sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, with the largest of these being two bipolar regions in the northeast, and a further bipolar region in the north-centre, however these are magnetically simple and reducing in areal extent.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A belated connection to the fast winds from a small coronal hole was observed. Solar winds speeds rose from Background to be Slightly Elevated, from 350km/s to around 400-450km/s. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mainly Moderate with the north-south component also Moderate, and variable in orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), but increased to give one G1 Minor Storm intervals (Kp5) at 03/2100-04/0000 UTC.
The net result of the above solar wind measures was for provisionally quiet geomagnetic activity throughout.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is likely to continue, with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Current solar wind enhancements, likely are expected to ease day 1 (04 Mar), with solar winds dropping to Background. The next enhancement is most likely to occur on day 4 (07 Mar) from the arrival of any fast wind associated with the next coronal hole feature. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active intervals at first. This easing to be mainly Quiet with only isolated Unsettled intervals day 2 (04 Mar) onward, but with a likelihood of rising to Unsettled to Active with a chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals later on day 4 (07 Mar)
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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