Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds are likely to bring spells of aurora visibility across northern parts of the UK overnight Saturday into Sunday (UTC), and similar geomagnetic latitudes. This activity will ease through Sunday and into Monday, with any viewing becoming more restricted to highest latitudes, and fading to background by Tuesday.
Southern Hemisphere
Ongoing fast solar winds are likely to bring spells of aurora visibility across southern parts of the New Zealand and Tasmania overnight Saturday into Sunday (UTC), and similar geomagnetic latitudes. This activity will ease through Sunday and into Monday, with any viewing becoming more restricted to across Antarctica, and fading to background by Tuesday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1-G2 Minor to Moderate storms days 1-2 (18-19 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with one Common-class flare observed from the region near the northwest limb. There only three magnetically simple regions on the Earth-facing disc. The largest is approaching the north-centre disc, however this remains a stable bipolar group with little development. The other two regions are simple unipolar spots.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) have been observed, however a eruption have been observed from the southeast disc. The most recent was early on 18 Apr, and is still under analysis.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The onset of the fast winds of a large coronal hole was observed. Solar winds were at Background, 300-350km/s, before rising from 17/2100 UTC, and more notably from 18/0300 UTC, to become elevated at around 500km/s by 18/1200 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was varied between Weak and Moderate in strength in the region ahead of the fast wind onset. However, from 18/0130 UTC, the IMF became Moderate to Strong. The north-south component, while showing some variability was mainly southward, and reached Moderate strength in this direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled until 18/0300 UTC (Kp0-3), then increased to be Active to G2 Moderate Storm (Kp4-6).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity expected, with only a slight chance of isolated Moderate class flares, most likely from the region in the north-centre disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME arrivals are currently not expected, however there remains a small chance of a glancing impact later on day 1 or early day 2 (18-19 Apr). This is from a CME missing to the south and east that left the Sun on 15 Apr. Otherwise the ongoing fast solar winds expected to continue, likely peaking Strong at around 700 km/s on day 2 (19 Apr) before showing a gradual decline later in the period. Active to G1 Minor Storms, with G2 Moderate storm intervals, are expected day 1 and likely into day 2 (18-19 Apr). This then easing to be Quiet to Active by the end of day 2 (19 Apr) and through to day 4 (21 Apr), but still with a chance of G1 Minor Storms. This G1 risk gradually decreasing through the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms forecast.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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