Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The onset of coronal hole fast winds will bring the possibility of enhanced aurora Saturday night across northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear. Thereafter aurora is expected to return to background levels
Southern Hemisphere
The onset of coronal hole fast winds will bring the possibility of enhanced aurora during the UTC Saturday night from southernmost parts of New Zealand and Tasmania, as well as across Antarctica where skies are clear. Thereafter aurora is expected to return to background levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor Geomagnetic Storms likely, mainly Day 1 (07 Mar).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only isolated Common class flares observed. There are five sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc, with three moderately large bipolar regions in the northern hemisphere, one of which near centre disc has provided most of the Common class flares. The remaining two regions are much smaller, weak and magnetically simple.
A CME followed a filament eruption which was observed in the southeast quadrant around 06/0230UTC. This has been modelled with a miss behind and below Earth orbit most likely, with just a low probability of a weak glance early on 10 Mar.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds speeds were mainly at Background levels, in the range 340-370km/s, but did end the period at slightly elevated levels of 400km/s, perhaps showing the start of a connection to coronal hole fast winds. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate, peaking towards the end of the period. The north-south component was mainly weakly variable, but did become largely negative from 06/2000UTC and became moderately negative towards the end of the period, Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2), but did become unsettled (Kp3) to end the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Very Low is forecast with only a slight chance rising to Moderate, due to isolated Moderate class flares, these most likely from the region near north centre disc.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME (coronal mass ejection) which left the sun at 06/0230UTC is expected to miss behind and below Earths orbit, but may give a weak glance early on Day 4 (10 Mar). The next notable enhancement is expected early on Day 1 (07 Mar) as fast winds from a coronal hole just west of centre disc reaches Earth. Solar wind speeds are expected to rise to elevated levels of 500–600 km/s. Speeds should then gradually decline from Day 2 (8 Mar), returning to background levels by Day 4 (10 Mar).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be increase from current Quiet (Kp 0-2) levels to Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) early Day 1 (07 Mar) with the anticipated onset of coronal-hole fast winds, with isolated G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals expected. Mainly Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) conditions are expected for Day 2 (08 Mar), with a chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals. Through Day 3 (09 Mar) activity is expected to decline to become Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3). There remains a slight chance of further Active to G1/Minor Storm intervals early on Day 4 (10 Mar) due to possible glancing CME effects.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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