Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
There is a chance of aurora sightings from northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes on Wednesday evening and into Thursday due to the combination of ongoing fast solar winds and a weak Coronal Mass Ejection arrival. Otherwise the auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
There is a chance of aurora sightings from Tasmania and southern New Zealand on Wednesday evening and into Thursday, due to the combination of ongoing fast solar winds and a weak Coronal Mass Ejection arrival. Otherwise the auroral oval is expected to be at mainly background latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Storms day 2 (18 Feb) from Coronal Mass Ejection arrival.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only isolated common-class flares observed. There are six sunspot regions on the disc, however these are generally all small and simple, and inactive. The most notable is in the northwest, however this currently remains inactive with the previous small growth to the south having stalled.
A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME )was observed from an eruption near the centre disc from around 16/1230UTC. This has the potential to give a glancing impact later on day 2 (18 Feb).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed an ongoing connection to the fast winds from a coronal hole Solar wind speeds as were elevated to strong between 550 and 700 km/s, but with an erratic easing trend from 17/0200 UTC. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with a very gradual declining trend. The north-south component was mainly Weak, but predominately southward 16/1500 UTC-16/1830 UTC, then northward 16/1830-0700 UTC, and more variable in direction thereafter. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4), but with the 16/1800-2100 UTC interval estimated at G1 Moderate Storm (Kp5) by British Geological Survey
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low or Very Low activity is forecast through the period, with the six sunspot regions currently on the disc all simple and stable.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME from the filament disruption on 16 Feb is expected to arrival on day 2 at 18/1900 UTC +/- 8 hrs with a glancing impact. Otherwise current fast winds are expected to only gradually ease through the period, from around 550-600 km/s to 400-500km/s later on day 4 (20 Feb). Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected, however given the current solar wind speeds, there remains a chance of an isolated Active and slight chance isolated G1 Minor Storm on day 1 (17 Feb) if any sustained southward IMF is observed. Any CME influence on day 2 (18 Feb) brings a chance for a further spell of Active to G1 Minor Storms, with a slight chance of an isolated G2 Moderate Storm.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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