Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Earth is currently under the influence of coronal hole fast winds, and wind speeds are expected to be Strong for much of the period. This brings a Chance of enhancements to the auroral oval, with aurora sightings possible across the north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Earth is currently under the influence of coronal hole fast winds, and wind speeds are expected to be Strong for much of the period. This brings a Chance of enhancements to the auroral oval, with aurora sightings possible across the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, though limited darkness this time of year will hinder viewings.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 1-3 (21-23 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only low level C class flares observed in the past 24 hours. There are currently five active regions on the visible disc. One very small and simple region resides in the northeast but was previously responsible for a low level Moderate-flare. The largest spot resides in the northeast, close to the limb, and appears to be a long yet simple and sparsely populated spot. All spot groups on the disk are magnetically simple and largely stable.
No Earth-directed CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters showed the gradual onset of coronal hole fast winds. Wind speeds were Slightly Elevated to Background before gradually rising to Strong. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Weak before becoming Moderate after 21/0100UTC. The north-south component followed a similar trend, with peaks of Moderately Positive and Negative observed later in the period, and were very variable in orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-2) initially before becoming Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) after the onset of the fast winds (after 21/0000 UTC).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to remain generally Low, but with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast. Solar winds are expected to remain at slow-ambient levels during Day 1 (21 Dec). Another fast wind is then expected to arrive during Day 1 and into Day 2 (21-22 Dec), with strong wind speeds likely continuing Days 3 and 4 (23-24 Dec).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet (Kp1-2) at first, with an increasing likelihood of Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) intervals during Days 1-2 and a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals. This risk peaking on Day 2 (22 Dec) then starting to decline by Day 4 (24 Dec).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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