Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds are expected to maintain enhanced geomagnetic activity during 23 March. Aurora may be visible at times on Monday night across Scotland, mainly in the north. A slowly decreasing chance of enhanced auroral visibility then likely into the period.
Southern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds are expected to maintain enhanced geomagnetic activity during 23 March. Aurora likely to be visible at times across higher geomagnetic latitudes. A slowly decreasing chance of enhanced auroral visibility then likely into the period.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storms likely initially, with geomagnetic activity expected to wane into the period.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low with a Common-class flare ongoing at the time of writing, from a bipolar region in the southwest disc.
There are currently eight sunspot regions on the visible disc, one un-numbered. The bipolar region mentioned above in the southwest disc retains a relatively large, mature negative-polarity spot with small waxing/waning peripheral spots that continue to provide some magnetic complexity. Another bipolar region also in the southwest, has consolidated a small lead spot containing some magnetic complexity but further growth appears to have stalled in recent imagery. There are now four regions toward the eastern limb, the northeastern-most of these showing development but the rest consisting of stable single spots. Remaining regions are relatively small, simple bipolar groups showing only small changes in recent imagery.
A filament eruption from the southeast quarter of the disc, beginning around 22/1530UTC, has produced a CME which is under analysis for a potential Earth-directed component. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds increased from Elevated to Strong, peak 715km/s, due to the fast wind from a coronal hole. The Magnetic Field was mostly Moderate until 22/1900UTC, then became Weak. The north-south component followed a similar pattern and was mostly negative (southward) orientated. Geomagnetic activity was Active to G1/Minor Storm (Kp 4-5) 22/0000-0900UTC, then G2-G3/Moderate-Strong Storm (Kp 6-7) thereafter.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Overall Solar activity is expected to continue Low or Very low, with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The dominant feature of the solar wind flow is the strong stream of wind from coronal hole 33, which continues its passage past the near Earth environment. This fast wind influence is expected to continue into Day 1 (23 Mar), with an anticipated slow easing through Days 2-4 (24-26 Mar), and an associated gradual decline in geomagnetic enhancement.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be generally Unsettled to G1/Minor storm levels (Kp 3 to 5) Day 1 (23 Mar), with a chance of G2/Moderate storm intervals (Kp 6), and a slight initial chance of a G3/Strong Storm (Kp 7). Ongoing Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) conditions are expected to continue into Day 2 (24 Mar), with a slowly reducing likelihood of further G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Storm (Kp 5-6) intervals. By Days 3-4 (25 -26 Mar) largely Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4) conditions, with a reducing slight chance of isolated G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar Radiation is expected to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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