Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds are likely to bring enhancements to the auroral oval tonight. Aurora sightings will be mainly at high latitudes, but with a chance of reaching northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds are likely to bring enhancements to the auroral oval tonight. Aurora sightings will be mainly at high latitudes, with a chance from the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. Sightings may be limited by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of further isolated Moderate class flares. Minor Geomagnetic Storms Likely, Chance of Moderate Geomagnetic Storms on Day 1 (18 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Moderate, peaking with a low level Moderate class flare at 17/1029 UTC from the large region in the southeast. There are seven sunspot regions, with the largest and most complex region located in the southeast of the disc. The second largest sunspot is now found in the southwest of the disc has lost some of it's magnetic complexity. All other spots are small and relatively stable.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured by ACE at L1, indicated transient effects, followed by the early onset of a coronal hole fast wind after around 17/0200 UTC. Solar wind speeds were Strong throughout ranging from 650-780 km/s. There has been a very gradual decrease, and now speeds are ranging from 650-720 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Moderate before falling to Weak after 17/0200 UTC. The north-south component has been Weak throughout and largely positive. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with a chance of further isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from 15 Jan has missed Earth with no effects observed. Solar winds are already under the influence of the coronal hole fast wind, with speeds around 700 km/s. Based on the previous rotation, wind speeds are expected to remain Strong or possibly Very Strong, reaching around 800 km/s. This coronal hole is likely to continue affecting Earth until the end of the period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) on day 1 (18 Jan), with G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) periods Likely and a Chance of G2/Moderate Storms due to ongoing coronal hole HSS effects. Activity is expected to gradually decline to become Quiet to Unsettled by later day 4 (21 Jan). as the coronal hole fast wind begins to wane.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is currently at Background levels and expected to remain so in the absence of significant flare activity.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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