Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Mainly background aurora is currently expected until at least 06 Nov, or more likely 07-08 Nov as a solar fast wind from a large coronal hole starts to interact with Earth. Once this takes place then aurora is likely to become visible (where skies are sufficiently dark and clear) from northern parts of UK and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Mainly background aurora is currently expected until at least 06 Nov, or more likely 07-08 Nov as a solar fast wind from a large coronal hole starts to interact with Earth. Once this takes place then aurora is likely to become visible (where skies are sufficiently dark and clear) from the far south of New Zealand and perhaps also Tasmania.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Further Moderate flares expected.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate several Moderate-class flares from a region in the northeast disc. This event peaking in X-Ray flux at 04/0148 UTC.
There are five regions on the visible disc, the most notable being AR4274. There has been continued growth of the sunspot, particularly in its trailing region and evidence of a complex magnetic configuration in the northwest portion of the main lead spot.
Another, smaller region in the northeast disc rotated onto the facing-disc with a moderately complex appearance, including a mature leading spot and multiple small intermediate and trailing spots. This region has been largely stable.
The sunspot region located in the south-centre disc maintains an uncommon appearance, with an east-west aligned neutral polarity line and moderately complex magnetic configuration, increasing the potential for flaring. Evolution of the leading spots remains slow, however.
The remaining regions on the disc are both mature, single sunspot regions and inactive.
Although multiple Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were in evidence leaving the Sun during the 24-hour period, none are forecast to have any Earth-directed component.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds, as measured by ACE at L1, showed a declining trend, as the connection to the fast winds from a coronal hole and minor CME influence continued to fade. Speeds decreased from Elevated to Slightly Elevated levels (varying between 420-510km/s) to Slightly Elevated to Slow-ambient (varying between 390-430km/s). The Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength, Bt, varied between Weak and Moderate levels, with the important north-south component Weak and favouring a largely negative (southward) orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mainly Moderate, with isolated or occasional M-class flares, along with a chance of becoming High, either from more frequent M-flares or a slight chance of isolated X-class flares occurring. The moderately large region in the northeast is the most likely region for this flaring to occur from.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME linked to a sunspot in the northeast disc on 03 Nov has been analysed with a possible glancing blow on Day 3 (06 Nov).
Solar winds are currently Slightly Elevated to Slow-ambient, with fast wind and minor CME influence now having largely declined. Speeds should be mainly Background until at least Day 3 (06 Nov), dependent on any arrival of the 03 Nov CME, or more likely on Day 4 (07 Nov) with the onset of a fast coronal hole fast wind.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mainly Quiet through Days 1 and 2 (04 and 05 Nov). On Day 3 (06 Nov) any CME or early fast solar wind interactions could lead to a chance of Active or G1/Kp5 conditions occurring. Confidence is higher for an increase in activity at some point on Day 4 (07 Nov) with G1/Kp5 to G2/Kp6 levels expected.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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