Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at most background, although brief enhancements are possible due to ongoing fast solar winds. A glancing coronal mass ejection may also bring a further enhancement late on 20 Jun or early 21 Jun UTC. Typically this could bring some aurora visibility to the far north of Scotland, however the very limited darkness at this time year will reduce this potential.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at most background, although brief enhancements are possible due to ongoing fast solar winds. A glancing coronal mass ejection may also bring a further enhancement late on 20 Jun or early 21 Jun UTC. This may allow the aurora visibility to extend northward from Antarctica, perhaps to the far south of New Zealand
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class flares expected with a slight chance of Strong flares. Slight chance of G1 Minor Storms day 2 (20 Jun).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with one Moderate class flare at 18/0000 UTC from a new region on the southeast limb. There are eight sunspot regions on the disc, with the two closely located spots in the northwest continuing to bring the potential for further notable flares. The larger of these showed some coalescing of small spots, but continues to have a small mixed polarity region, while the other region remains relatively simpler but with some small spots on its northern periphery. The two regions moving onto the disc from the southeastern limb appear relatively magnetically simple, but remain difficult to accurately assess. The other regions remained largely small and simple.
A number of CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were observed leaving the Sun, however these have all be analysed as missing Earth.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed the ongoing peripheral fast wind influence from the broad coronal hole across the southwest disc. Wind speeds were slightly elevated at 450-500 km/s, then rose from 18/1930 UTC to be elevated at 550-580 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate with its north-south component remained variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 2-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained at background levels with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is expected, with further Moderate flares, but with a slight chance of rising to high with an isolated Strong (X-class) flare, mainly from the large region in the northwest.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Glancing CME from 15 Jun has most probably missed on 18 Jun, however a glancing interaction remains possible early on day 1 (19 Jun). A further CME from 17 Jun has been reassessed as potentially having a component that may glance Earth later on day 2 (20 Jun), but mostly passing to the north and east. Otherwise ongoing fast solar winds are likely to gradually ease, although further enhancements are possible, most likely on days 2-3 (20-21 Jun). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals and a slight chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals, most likely on day 2 (20 Dec).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is likely to remain at background levels. However, the large complex of sunspots in the northern disc brings a slight chance of reaching the S1 Minor Radiation Storm level if any significant flares occur.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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