Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval may become slightly enhanced due to minor geomagnetic storms from coronal hole high speed streams initially. This may bring aurora sightings to the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes. That said, significant displays remain unlikely due to the limited hours of darkness in the Northern Hemisphere at this time of year.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval may become slightly enhanced due to minor geomagnetic storms from coronal hole high speed streams initially. This may bring aurora sightings to the higher latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms initially.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with only minor isolated Common-class flares observed.
There are currently seven sunspot regions visible on the solar disc, with most of the spots being small, simple and stable. A region in the centre-southwest has seen consolidation of smaller spots into a larger leading region, potentially leading to some increased magnetic complexity. A new region has also been observed rotating around the eastern limb, potentially showing some complexity, however analysis remains difficult at this point.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24hrs. A filament (arc of plasma) eruption was observed starting around 07/0130 UTC, but the resulting CME looks to be directed well to the north of Earths orbit.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have likely have been under the influence of a high-speed stream (HSS) over the past 24hrs. Solar wind speeds were initially at Slightly Elevated levels, ranging between 400-440km/s, before steadily rising to current Elevated levels, generally around 550km/s, but speeds did peak at strong levels of around 650km/s at 07/2054UTC. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak-Moderate, peaking at around 14nT at 07/0200UTC. The north-south component was moderate at times, varying between negative (southwards) and positive (northwards).
The resulting geomagnetic activity for the period was mostly Quiet to Active (Kp1-4), with G1/Minor Geomagnetic (Kp5) storming observed between 07/0000-07/0300 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to remain Low, with only a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast period. The Earth is expected to continue seeing fast wind effects throughout the period, on a slow declining trend from Day 2 (09 July).
Overall, activity is expected to be Quiet to unsettled (Kp1-3) with a chance of active intervals (Kp4) and a slight, decreasing chance of isolated G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm (Kp 5) Intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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