Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Recent fast solar winds from a coronal hole are continuing to slowly decline. Any enhancement to the aurora and its associated visibility is likely to remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes, and only giving a slight chance of limited glimpses into the far north of Scotland. Further fast winds may enhance aurora through the 31 Dec, although this is low confidence.
Southern Hemisphere
Recent fast solar winds from a coronal hole are continuing to slowly decline. Any enhancement to the aurora and its associated visibility is likely to remain limited to high geomagnetic latitudes. Given the reduced hours of darkness at this time of year, any potential viewings will remain unlikely. Further fast winds may enhance aurora through the 31 Dec, although this is low confidence.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts. Chance of G1-G2/Minor to Moderate storms Day 4 (31 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity reached Moderate-class following an isolated Moderate flare at 27/0150 UTC from AR4323 in the southeast.
There are currently up to nine sunspot regions on the visible disc. The spot group in the southwest is a large, compact bipolar region, with an unusual magnetic structure. The most active region at present is a region in the far southeast. Although relatively small, it has undergone rapid growth in recent hours. A region in the far northeast has also shown recent growth. These easternmost regions are difficult to fully analyse however due to their proximity to the eastern limb. The remaining sunspot regions are smaller and magnetically simple, with only minor changes observed.
No Earth-directed CMEs (coronal mass ejections) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed gradually waning influence from a coronal hole fast wind. The solar wind speed declined from Elevated to mainly Slightly Elevated levels. The magnetic field was Weak, with the north-south component also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: There is a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares over the coming days.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No coronal mass ejections (CMEs) feature in the forecast. Current coronal hole fast winds are expected to slowly decline to Background levels by Day 2 (29 Dec). Further fast winds from a coronal hole currently in the northeast may then connect with Earth through Day 4 (31 Dec), with speeds becoming strong.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled Days 1-3 (28-30 Dec), with a Slight Chance of isolated Active intervals. Through Day 4 (31 Dec) activity may increase to Unsettled to active levels, with a chance of G1-G2/Minor to Moderate storm intervals and a very slight chance of isolated G3/strong storm intervals.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy proton flux has a Slight Chance of S1 solar radiation storms should any significant flares occur over the coming days.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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