Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be enhanced for at least the next 24 hours due to current connection to a coronal hole related fast solar wind stream, which arrived at Earth, early on 21 April. The aurora probably becoming occasionally visible across at least northern parts of Scotland, and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is expected to be enhanced for at least the next 24 hours due to current connection to a coronal hole related fast solar wind stream, which arrived at Earth, early on 21 April. The aurora probably becoming occasionally visible as far north as 57 degrees south.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor Storms likely Day 1 (22 Apr) due to ongoing coronal hole fast wind. Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate, with only one Moderate-class flare observed in the past 24 hours.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc and three unnumbered. Two of these are moderately large bipolar regions located in the eastern hemisphere, both with decreasing magnetic complexity. A newly numbered region is emerging across the southeast limb. Remaining active regions are relatively small and less complex, with only small changes observed.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind strengthened to around 600 km/s from 21/0800 UTC due to connection to a fast wind. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was strong before easing to moderate. The north-south component was strong at times before easing to weak to moderate. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Active to Minor storm with one G2 Moderate storm interval.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to be generally Low, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, most likely from the two largest sunspots in the east of the visible disc, and also from the new region currently emerging from across the southeast limb.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth directed CMEs are currently featured in the forecast.
Fast solar winds are now connected to Earth and are related to the large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Solar winds could potentially peak around 800 km/s in the next 24 hours. A slow decline back to elevated levels is likely during Days 2 and 3 (23 and 24 Apr). Geomagnetic activity will be Active to Minor storm intervals on Day 1 (22 Apr). There is a chance of reaching G2/Moderate storm intervals. For Days 2 and 3 (23 and 24 Apr) activity probably easing back to Quiet to Unsettled levels.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is likely to remain at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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