Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms Days 3 and 4 (13-14 Mar).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar Activity has been Low with Common-class flares observed, the largest peaking at 10/1845 UTC. There are seven sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. The moderately sized regions in the northwest are generally stable and magnetically simple. All other regions are small and simple with the majority of the activity from the two regions in the northeast.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds continued to show a waning connection to the fast winds from a coronal hole, with winds speeds at slightly elevated levels, between 400-500km/s. However, there has been an unexpected rise recently up to Elevated levels, with a peak of 530km/s at 10/2100 UTC. Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak to moderate. The north-south component varied weak to moderate. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 1-4).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Low solar activity is likely to continue, but with a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection from 06 Mar is expected to miss Earth, but may give a weak glance on Day 1 (10 Mar). No other Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Waning fast wind conditions may ease a little further. Ambient or perhaps slightly elevated wind speeds are expected until Day 4 (13 Mar), when another fast wind is likely to arrive, although with some uncertainty in timing. Wind speeds likely rising to Strong. 

Solar winds may continue to be Elevated early on Day 1 (11 Mar) due to connection with the fast winds from a coronal hole, with an unexpected rise in solar wind speeds recently, currently near 530km/s. Fast winds should begin to erratically wane during Day 1 (11 Mar). Slow or perhaps slightly elevated wind speeds are expected until Days 3 and 4 (13-14 Mar), when the fast wind from the next coronal hole located in the eastern hemisphere is likely to arrive, although with some uncertainty in timing. Wind speeds of 600-700 km/s are expected. No Earth-directed CMEs feature in the forecast.

Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected through much of the period. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase to Unsettled to Active during Days 3 and 4 (13-14 Mar) under fast wind influence from CH31/-, with a chance of G1/Minor Storms.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background levels.