Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible on Wednesday due to the ongoing fast solar winds. However, any visibility will remain limited to the highest latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible on Wednesday due to the ongoing fast solar winds. However, any visibility will remain limited to the highest latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storms day 4 (25 Apr)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with frequent Common-class flares. There are four sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest of these is an inactive region in the northwest disc. The main region of interest is now in the northeast. This remains a relatively small region (though there is some growth) and has developed a more complex structure. The other two sunspots both remain simple with little activity.
No Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been seen during this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The fast wind has persisted through the period, with an Elevated solar wind speed of 500-550km/s, easing to Slightly Elevated at 450-500km/s.
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak with the important north south component also Weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity started Active, but has eased to Quiet.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux was at Background.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected to continue, with four sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. However, the ongoing growth of the sunspot region in the northeast brings a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. The current fast wind enhancement is expected to continue easing day 1-2 (22-23 Apr), with solar winds easing erratically towards Background. The next enhancement with fast winds may arrive on day 4-5 (25-26 Apr).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled at first, with a slight chance of Active intervals day 1-2 (22-23 Apr). Activity increasing to be Unsettled to Active, with a chance of G1 / Kp5 intervals by the end of the period, most likely on day 4 (25 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: GOES18 high energy (>10 MeV) proton flux is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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