Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds are bringing a slight enhancement to the aurora, with sightings possible in northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. This is likely to gradually decline in the coming days.
Southern Hemisphere
Coronal hole fast winds are bringing a slight enhancement to the aurora, with a slight chance of sightings from the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear. This is likely to gradually decline in the coming days. However, short hours of darkness at this time of year will limit viewings.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of G1/Minor Storms Days 1-2 (13-14 Jan). Chance of Moderate-class flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate with a long duration flare, originating from a sunspot region beyond the east limb, peaking at 11/2314 UTC. There are currently three sunspot regions on the visible disc. A region in the southwest is the largest but its intermediate and trailing spots have been fading. Another region in the southwest is diminishing and is a simple unipolar spot. The third region in the northeast has developed a stronger trailing spot in recent hours.
There have been no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were indicative of ongoing fast wind influence, with waning CME influence. Wind speeds have been elevated to strong, mostly between 500-600 km/s, but with some peaks to 650 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly weak, but with brief moderate peaks. The north-south component, Bz, was mostly southward directed and varied mostly weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp1-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be mostly Low, but with an increasing chance of further isolated M-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: CME effects at Earth appear to have merged into a coronal hole fast wind. This now appears to be the dominant effect on the solar wind at Earth. No further Earth directed CMEs are currently expected. Solar wind speeds are likely to remain elevated to strong during Days 1-2 (13-14 Jan) due to the ongoing fast wind. Wind speeds are considered most likely to ease to slightly elevated, or perhaps background, levels through Days 3-4 (15-16 Jan).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) on Day 1, with a chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals. During Days 2-3 conditions likely easing to become mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3), and remaining Quiet into Day 4.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is likely to be at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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