Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is expected to be at or near background levels for the next couple of days. The onset of faster solar winds, either on Wednesday 3rd or Thursday 4th December is expected to enhance the auroral oval to lower latitudes. Following its arrival, aurora may be visible, where skies are sufficiently clear, from Scotland and perhaps also parts of Northern Ireland and Northern England at peak.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is expected to be at or near background levels for the next couple of days. The onset of faster solar winds, either on Wednesday 3rd or Thursday 4th December is expected to enhance the auroral oval to lower latitudes. Following its arrival, aurora may be visible, where skies are sufficiently clear, from the far south of New Zealand and perhaps also Tasmania at peak.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate-class solar flares expected, chance of Strong solar flares. G1-G2/Kp5-6 Geomagnetic Activity likely on Day 3 or 4 (03 or 04 Dec).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity reduced to Low levels with a peak high Common-class flare at 30/1054 UTC, from a returning region rotating over the northeast limb.
There are now nine sunspots on the visible disc. The most notable of these are located in the far southeast disc, with at least two, large regions present and providing the majority of the flaring activity. One of these regions maintains a complex magnetic configuration conducive to significant flaring. Another, returning region appeared close to the northeast limb during the period, containing a number of mature spots, although due to significant foreshortening in available imagery, confidence in its assessment is low for now.
The remaining sunspot groups on the disc are smaller and appear more magnetically simple in general.
Occasional coronal mass ejection (CME) activity was observed on near the east limb. No clearly Earth-directed ejecta was observed in available imagery however.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind parameters showed continued influence from fast solar winds. Solar wind speeds were Elevated to Strong, varying between 530-660km/s, but with a general decline evident. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak. The important north-south component, Bz, was also Weak and highly variable in direction, although often favouring a negative (southward) orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at or close to Background, with no Solar Radiation Storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Generally Moderate solar activity is forecast to continue into the period, with occasional Moderate solar flares expected. There is a Slight Chance of isolated Strong solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are currently no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) forecast.
Ongoing coronal hole fast wind influence will wane in the coming days and solar winds should ease from Elevated or Strong to become Slightly Elevated or Background by Day 3 (03 Dec). The next enhancement is likely from Day 3 or Day 4 (03 or 04 Dec) due to a large, recurrent, trans-equatorial coronal hole that gave Strong to Very Strong solar winds in early November. Similar speeds are likely on this occasion, although the exact onset of this enhancement carries lower than average confidence.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be at mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels between Days 1-3 (01-03 Dec), with a chance of isolated Active (Kp4) intervals early Day 1. During Day 3 or 4 (03 or 04 Dec), activity is likely to increase to mainly G1-G2/Kp5-6 levels resulting from the onset of the coronal hole fast wind and with a slight chance of peak G3/Kp7 levels being reached.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is at, or near normal background levels and expected to remain at similar levels during the four-day period, though with a rising Slight Chance of reaching S1/Minor Solar Radiation Storm levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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