Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible on Saturday night into Sunday due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing CME (coronal mass ejection). However, any visibility will likely remain limited to northern Scotland and similar latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to be at mostly background through this period, although some slight enhancements are possible on Saturday night into Sunday due to a combination of fast solar winds and the potential of a glancing CME (coronal mass ejection). However, any visibility will likely remain limited to high latitudes such as New Zealand's south island.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of M-class flares. Chance of G1 Minor Storms Day 3 and Day 4 (25-26 Apr)
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been moderate with three M-class flares observed. Two from a region in the northwest and one from a region in the northeast.
There are four sunspot regions on the visible disc, the large region in the northeast is most notable and has shown signs of developing complexity in recent hours. The other regions on the disc remain small and simple, and have shown little development in recent hours.
Three CMEs (coronal mass ejections) occurred during the morning of 23 April in association with M-class flaring. Two CMEs originated from AR4419 in the northwest and are currently not expected to have any Earth directed component. A CME associated with an M1.2 flare from AR4420 in the northeast at 23/0459 UTC may give a glancing blow at Earth during the morning of the Day 4 (26 April), but this is currently low confidence.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar wind speeds declined from Elevated at just over 500km/s, to be Slightly Elevated at near 450km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak, with the north-south component variable in direction and also Weak. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected to continue with a chance of further isolated moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME (coronal mass ejection) associated with a Moderate flare from AR4420 in the northeast at 23/0459UTC may give a glancing blow at Earth during the morning of the Day 4 (26 April), but this is currently low confidence. Slightly elevated solar winds are expected to continue easing to Background with the next enhancement expected to from the fast winds of CH46/+, most likely on Day 3 (25 Apr).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet day with a chance of Unsettled intervals. This then increasing to Unsettled to Active, with a chance of G1 Minor Storms with any fast wind onset on Day 3 (25 Apr), with further G1 Minor storms possible with any glancing CME impact on the Day 4 (26 Apr).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to continue at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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