Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement late on Saturday or more likely on Sunday (UTC) due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some brief glimpses from the far north of Scotland, and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but may see a slight enhancement during the southern hemisphere Sunday night due to the onset of fast solar winds. This could allow for some glimpses from far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Peak Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 over current UTC weekend.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity reached Moderate levels following a long duration Moderate-class flare, peaking at 27/0408UTC, from the most active region towards the southeast limb.
There are up to eight sunspot regions on the Earth-facing disc. In the north centre disc is a moderately large and elongated bipolar region, which showed some small amounts of decay in its trailing portion. Toward the southeast limb, is another moderately large bipolar region but with more complex mixed magnetic polarity. This again showed only minor changes but remains the most active region, producing the recent Moderate-class flare. Other regions are smaller, simpler and relatively stable.
Several Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) events were observed in the period, with none assessed as having potential Earth directed impacts. The main interest was the CME produced following a long duration Moderate flare mentioned above. Most of the ejecta looks directed behind and below the Earth orbit, and initial modelling results confirm this.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed an overall steady decline from Slightly Elevated levels, 400-450km/s, to current Background, 380km/s. The magnitude of the magnetic field was steady at Weak levels, with the north-south component also Weak but predominantly southward. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) but with an Active interval 28/0000-0300UTC, as observed by BGS.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is likely to be mostly Low, but with an ongoing chance of isolated Moderate-class x-ray flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the current forecast. The next coronal hole fast wind should arrive within the UTC weekend to give a Chance of Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1, easing into the new UTC working week. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet to start and end the four-day period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected given the relative lack of significant regions and activity on the disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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