Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Earth is now experiencing waning fast winds from a coronal hole. This may bring visible aurora to high latitudes at first, but activity is expected to be near background levels after Saturday with visible aurora unlikely.
Southern Hemisphere
Earth is now experiencing waning fast winds from a coronal hole. This may bring visible aurora to high latitudes at first, but activity is expected to be near background levels after Saturday with visible aurora unlikely.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with occasional common-class flares observed, the largest of which was from the developing sunspot region in the northeast. There are ten sunspot regions on the disc, however the majority of these are small and simple. The northeast region is the main region of note, rapidly emerging in the last 12-24 hours. This has developed some complexity with a small mixed polarity ('delta') spot forming within its central spots, and while still only modestly sized, continues to see ongoing growth. Two of the regions are also new regions moving onto the eastern limb, that are currently impossible to accurately assess.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The recent fast solar winds continued to ease, from Elevated, at around 550km/s to be Slightly Elevated at 450km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component, weak and variable in direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) remained at Background with no Solar Radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, primarily from the developing region in the northeast.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Waning fast winds are likely to ease to Background day 2 (01 Feb). No other notable enhancements to the solar wind are forecast. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet with a decreasing chance of isolated Unsettled spells.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is near background levels, and is expected to remain that way through this period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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