Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval may become slightly enhanced due to minor geomagnetic storms from coronal hole high speed streams at times. This may bring aurora sightings to the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes. That said, significant displays remain unlikely due to the limited hours of darkness in the Northern Hemisphere at this time of year.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval may become slightly enhanced due to minor geomagnetic storms from coronal hole high speed streams at times. This may bring aurora sightings to the higher latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight chance of further minor geomagnetic storms.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with four Common class flares observed in the past 24hrs.
There are currently seven sunspot regions visible on the solar disc. Most of the spots are small and fairly simple. AR4130 in the southeast has continued to develop in the last period. Newly numbered AR4134 in the southeast has also continued to develop and has developed a trailing spot. There is a new spot in the northeast which is small and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24hrs.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have likely have been under the combined influence of a weak high-speed stream (HSS) and the magnetic cloud associated with a slow, glancing CME impact. Solar wind speeds were mostly at Slightly Elevated levels through the period, now around 410km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly Moderate. The north-south component, was largely negative (southwards) but has been positive (northwards) for short intervals. The resulting geomagnetic activity for the period was Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) with a G1 minor storm interval between 06/0300-0600UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is likely to remain Low, with only a slight chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No CMEs feature in the forecast period. Minor increases in solar wind speeds are possible due to a northern extension of a southern hemisphere coronal hole and another currently in the centre disc.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Active (Kp1-4) with a slight chance of minor storm (Kp5) periods at times.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms are expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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