Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Some minor geomagnetic activity is possible Thursday night due to on-going weak solar wind enhancement. Where skies are clear aurora may be visible across the far north of Scotland and similar latitudes. A coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival is expected during the early hours of Saturday. Where skies are clear aurora may be visible across Scotland and similar latitudes, also possibly across northern Scotland Saturday night into Sunday.
Southern Hemisphere
Some minor auroral activity is possible during the southern hemisphere Thursday night due an on-going weak solar wind enhancement. Aurora sightings are more likely during the southern hemisphere Friday night. Each night where skies are clear aurora may be visible across Tasmania and the south of South Island, during the limited hours of darkness.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storms expected day 3 (03 Jan) with a slight chance Strong Storms. Chance of Moderate class flares throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate, peaking with an Moderate class flare at 31/1351 UTC. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the visible disc, with the most notable a large and magnetically complex region in the southeast and a moderately sized and magnetically simpler region in the northeast. The latter region produced the largest flare of the period, and both regions showed slight growth through the period. The remaining regions on the disc are smaller, weak and magnetically simple.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed leaving the Sun in association with the Moderate class flare. This CME has been analysed and results indicate an Earth directed component, which is expected to arrive early on Day 3 (03 Jan).
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have been Elevated to Slightly Elevated, ranging between 400-550km/s. The magnetic field was weak to moderate. The north-south component was initially positive (northward), then fluctuated between positive and negative later in the period. The result of the above solar parameters was for Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity (Kp 0-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is forecast with a chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME associated with a Moderate flare at 28/2239 UTC from the declining region in the northwest was due to give a glancing blow at Earth early on Day 1 (01 Jan), but is now considered overdue. If any glancing blow occurs it is likely to be very weak with no impacts anticipated. A second CME, associated with the Moderate class flare at 31/1351 UTC, is much more likely to arrive, early on Day 3 (03 Jan). Slightly elevated to occasionally elevated solar winds are expected to persist under the influence of a coronal hole feature until the CME on 03 Jan arrives, with solar winds potentially reaching Strong levels in association with the CME arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly Quiet to Unsettled through Days 1 and 2 (01-02 Jan), with a slight chance of Active intervals. Early on Day 3 (03 Jan) the stronger CME arrival is expected to increase activity to Minor/Moderate geomagnetic storm levels with a slight chance of Strong (Kp 7) geomagnetic storm intervals. Activity is expected to gradually decline on Day 4 (04 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with solar radiation storms unlikely to occur.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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