Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Enhancement to aurora likely 31 Dec and 01 Jan, due to onset of fast winds from a coronal hole. This may be further enhanced by a potential glancing Coronal Mass Ejection arrival early on 01 Jan. Potential auroral sightings across geomagnetic latitudes such as northern Scotland, with chance of glimpses further south. Slightly enhanced activity could continue into 02 Jan, however this is currently expected to gradually ease towards background.
Southern Hemisphere
Enhancement to aurora likely 31 Dec and 01 Jan (UTC), due to onset of fast solar winds. This may be further enhanced by a potential glancing Coronal Mass Ejection arrival on 01 Jan. Visibility of aurora possible across New Zealand's South Island or Tasmania, although viewings likely limited due to the short hours of darkness. Slightly enhanced activity could continue into 02 Jan, however this is currently expected to gradually ease towards background.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: G1 Minor storms likely, mainly day 2 (01 Jan), with a chance G2 Moderate Storms. Chance of Moderate flares (Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) throughout.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with frequent small Common-class flares. There are currently 8 regions on the disc, the most notable of which include regions in the southeast and northeast. The region in the southwest is the largest on the disc. The region in the northeast has shown some recent flare activity. Another region in the northwest has seen fluctuations in its magnetic complexity.
No significant Earth-directed (Coronal Mass Ejections) CMEs were observed leaving the Sun in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Slow to slightly elevated solar wind conditions were observed, generally between 380-460km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field was weak to moderate. The north-south component was also weak to moderate, but predominantly in a positive (northward) direction. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at Background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is forecast with a chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A CME associated with a Moderate flare at 28/2239 UTC from the declining region in the northwest may give a glancing impact at Earth early day 2 (01 Jan). Current slightly elevated solar winds are expected to persist until the onset of the fast wind of a coronal hole, which is expected to connect with Earth later day 1 (31 Dec) and peaking day 2 (01 Jan), with solar winds probably reaching Strong levels, above 600 km/s. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected to become Active with a likelihood of Minor Storms, and a chance of isolated Moderate Storm intervals, most likely on days 1 and 2 (31 Dec and 01 Jan). Activity easing day 3 (02 Jan) to become Quiet to Unsettled with Active intervals and a decreasing slight chance of a Minor Storm interval.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to persist at Background with solar radiation storms unlikely to occur.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: