Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Continued geomagnetic activity is possible at first. Aurora may be visible in parts of northern Scotland and other similar latitudes initially. Aurora then forecast to return to background levels for the remainder of the period.
Southern Hemisphere
Continued geomagnetic activity is possible at first, aurora may be visible in parts of southern Tasmania, South Island of New Zealand, and other clear-sky high-latitude areas. Aurora activity is then forecast to return to background levels for the remainder into the period. Sightings may be limited however by the short hours of darkness at this time of year.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Ongoing chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storms and isolated Moderate solar flares likely slowly reducing.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low. There are currently nine numbered and two small unnumbered sunspot regions. Limited growth or significant magnetic complexity in recent hours.
No significant Earth-directed CMEs were observed in this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a continued fast wind influence. Wind speeds were mostly Elevated, gradually declining from 600km/s to near 550km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak to Moderate. The important north-south component, Bz, was Weak and variable. Geomagnetic conditions were Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was below the Minor level radiation storm level and on a very gradual declining trend.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Activity is expected to be Low to Moderate, with a slowly declining chance of isolated Moderate flares and a persistent very slight chance of isolated Strong solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) currently feature in the forecast.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled (Kp2-3) with Active (Kp4) intervals for much of Day 1 (24 Jan) under ongoing HSS influence, with a continued chance of isolated G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm (Kp 5) intervals. From Day 2 (25 Jan) a decreasing chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals as solar winds are expected to slowly ease. Geomagnetic activity falling mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) but with a chance of Active (Kp 4) intervals associated with glancing CME influence, or further HSS enhancement by the end of the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is now below the S1/Minor radiation storm level, with a decreasing slight chance of reaching S1/Minor Storm levels through the period.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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