Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Strong solar winds bring a chance of aurora for higher latitude locations where skies are clear. Activity is expected to reduce in coming nights as the fast solar winds ease.
Southern Hemisphere
Strong solar winds bring a chance of aurora for higher latitude locations where skies are clear. Activity is expected to reduce in coming nights as the fast solar winds ease.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Gradually declining strong solar winds maintain a slight chance of isolated G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms initially.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar Activity remains just at Moderate levels, with a solitary Moderate solar flare observed at 15/0938 UTC from AR4392 in the southeast quadrant.. There are currently six sunspot regions visible on the Earth‑facing disc with the small AR4396 numbered in the northeast disk. The chief source of activity is AR4392 in the southeast, this region appears generally mature but some peripheral spot development adding magnetic complexity. The other regions are small, magnetically simple and either generally stable or showing slow evolution.
No significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were at Strong levels but slowly waning, between around 680-600 km/s. The Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was Weak. The important north-south component, Bz, varied Weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Generally Low or Very Low solar activity is expected, with an ongoing slight chance of isolated Moderate solar flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No significant Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast.
Geomagnetic activity expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) during the period with Active (Kp4) intervals likely Days 1 and 2 (16-17 Mar) as Strong solar winds are expected to slowly wane towards Slightly-Elevated levels into the period. There remains a slight chance of G1 Minor Geomagnetic Storm (Kp5) intervals to start.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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