Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
There are currently no active notifications.
Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
A fast solar wind is expected to reach Earth during 30 April UTC. Aurora sightings may be possible on Thursday night where skies are clear from northern Scotland and similar magnetic latitudes. Chances diminish in the following days with no significantly enhanced auroral activity expected.
Southern Hemisphere
A fast solar wind is expected to reach Earth during 30 April UTC. Aurora sightings are likely to be restricted to high latitudes, with just a very small chance of visibility from the far south of New Zealand and similar magnetic latitudes. Chances diminish in the following days with no significantly enhanced auroral activity expected.
Issued at:
Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class flares. G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storms likely on Day 1 (30 Apr).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with just Common-class flares observed in the last 24 hours. There are currently seven sunspot regions on the visible disc. The largest group on the disc maintains a large main spot which has slowly been becoming more symmetrical. Many of the smaller, trailing spots, have been decaying, with very limited penumbra in the trailing region now. A region in the northwest appears to be undergoing some simplification, with the previous magnetic complexity starting to pull apart. Another region in the northwest has seen the emergence of a couple of small intermediate spots. The emergence of two further regions continues, with both continuing to grow slowly. The remaining regions are small and simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were identified in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind indicated a slow regime but with signs of the next coronal hole fast wind arriving. Wind speeds varied between 300-360 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was mostly weak, but increased towards the end of the period. The north-south component varied weakly. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-2) throughout.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, and a very slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There is a potential CME which could have left the Sun late on 26 Apr, however confidence in this event is very low and it is considered most likely that this feature, if there is one, will miss Earth. If there is a glancing blow, it would most likely be later on Day 1 (30 Apr). The next coronal hole fast wind enhancement looks to be starting to occur, with wind speeds expected to rise during Day 1 (30 Apr) to near elevated levels, probably around 500-600km/s. Wind speeds may be slow to ease with slightly elevated to elevated wind speeds likely for much of this period.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to become Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm during Day 1, with a slight chance of isolated G2/Moderate Storm intervals. Activity is then likely to ease during Day 2 (01 May), but if any CME influence were to occur then the risk of G1 could be slightly prolonged. Activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled through Days 3-4 (02-03 May).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is currently at background levels and likely to remain so, although there is a slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Radiation Storm threshold should there be any larger flares, mainly from the region approaching the northwest limb.
Issued at:
Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
Issued at:
SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
Issued at: