Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The combination of possible glancing blows from weak coronal mass ejections and a slightly enhanced solar wind is likely to lead to occasional weak enhancements of the auroral oval. Aurora may be visible, where skies are clear, at high latitudes including northern Scotland.
Southern Hemisphere
The combination of possible glancing blows from weak coronal mass ejections and a slightly enhanced solar wind is likely to lead to occasional weak enhancements of the auroral oval. Aurora may be visible, where skies are clear, at high latitudes during the limited hours of darkness.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: A slight chance of Minor Storm intervals, mainly on day 1 (09 Jan) and day 3 (11 Jan). Chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with only common-class flares observed. There are currently three sunspot regions on the visible disc. A region in the southeast quadrant is the largest and most interesting region on the disc, currently a large region with a complex magnetic structure. However, the largest flare of the past 24 hours came from a relatively small and magnetically simple region, near south-centre disc. This region produced the largest Common-class flare of the period, which was a long duration event, with an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). This has been analysed as a glancing blow at Earth late on day 3 (11 Jan).
Another CME was observed from the same region, in associated with a Common class flare peaking at 08/0520 UTC. This has been modelled for the CME material to miss Earth.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds were slow-ambient initially, before a gradual rise to Slightly Elevated and Elevated levels, due to the on-set of a coronal hole fast wind, with solar winds peaking at 560km/s at 09/0913 UTC, before declining to the current Slightly Elevated levels, near 500km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field, Bt, was mostly Moderate. The all important north-south component, Bz, was moderate and mostly negative (southward). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a likelihood of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are a number of CMEs that have been observed leaving the Sun in the last few days, all faint and mostly missing Earth. The most likely Earth directed CME is from the long duration Common-class flare associated with the filament eruption near the large sunspot region near south-centre disc, which has been analysed as a possible glancing blow late on day 3 (11 Jan).
Earth is currently under the influence of a coronal hole fast wind. Currently the fast wind has only reached Elevated levels, but there is the potential for solar winds to reach 600-650 km/s, likely to peak during day 1 (09 Jan). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with a Chance of Active intervals, and a Slight Chance of G1/Minor Storm interval on day 1 (09 Jan). Activity is likely to gradually wane from day 2 (10 Jan). Slight Chance of Active intervals or G1/Minor Storm late on day 3 (11 Jan) due to glancing CME influence, before gradually easing on day 4 (12 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to remain at Background.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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